Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, Aug 29, 2011.
Over the next 10 days
QQQ is a little more interesting because its HL was barely higher than the last low. It was pretty much a double bottom.
The mentality of most people carry the thought that on up days like today its time to be buying thinking the markets have touched down on the lows for the year. What they forget is that the markets are now in a very volatile environment and that yes the markets could go higher, but the sell offs which we have been having will be known to give anyone with patience a perfect opportunity to buy again. There is absolutely no reason at all to chase this market. So what if it gets away, it will only be temporarily. Today is not a day to be buying, but rather selling. The markets will drop back down again after this short covering rally is through, it always does.
Get out of here with your logic and common sense. This thread is about predicting price movement
Voted down, but sideways is more likely. If it can stay right around here until Sept 9 (the next week is an op-ex week, so it would be too much to ask that that one be quiet) then the bias would switch to the upside. If it continues up, I'd say we get a bloodbath around expiration as the Chicago boys play their piano on the markets.
A little base-building is needed to soothe rattled nerves.
Sideways between the two lines I drew?
Or sideways around the current price +/- only a dollar or two?
I'm long a pretty large position of SPY with an average cost of $123ish so I'd like price to go up, but I want it go to down further first so I can buy more. But my next buy point is at like $105 so that's quite a drop from here.
I spend a lot of my trading time waiting.
Plus or minus three bucks. That would at least keep IV and the VIX right around where it is now.
A drop to 105 would be - well, interesting. Right now, only things that would set that off would be
1 - a really bad employment report (a reasonable possibility), or
2 - a real crisis in the eurozone banks, in which case it wouldn't stop there.
its only up from here. market will rally even on bad economic reports because of the bernank. longer term, we will break the recent lows.
its going to keep going up unless it turns down then its going to keep going down unless it turns up.
Now that's guru-like wisdom!
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