This might be a naive question, and forgive me if it is. Has anyone ever made a trade in ES outside the spread in order to bump the price down to or up to a critical level or initiate a run in the pre/post market? For example, right now at 8:23 EST, ES is trading at 974.00, spreading 973.75/974.00. If I shorted below the bid at 973.50, then again immediately at 973.25 and again immediately at 973.00, etc, pushing it below its temporary support, would the market necessarily reject this motion, or is there any chance it would follow? Does anybody do this, particularly outside regular market hours? Just how strong are the arbitrage forces that keep ES in predominantly tight overnight ranges on extremely thin volume?
you wont be able to do that unless you shorting big sizes each level on ES (every 0.25) has buyers and sellers You can thought sweep them all with 200-300 lots but I dont think you're talking that size?
I do look at market depth. In the market at any time there are buyers on one side and sellers on the other, and when they agree on a price, there is a trade. When there are no trades, there is no agreement, so in that sense, at any point in time, there are not always both buyers and sellers at every level. I know the conventional wisdom is that huge lots are what move the market not one lots --- but --- I am wondering if it's possible for a series of one-lots traded off the spread (like scarifice batting) at a significant S/R turning point could have a disproportionate influence on the market. Like if ES has been testing and failing a level all night, why couldn't it be a one-lot that takes it over the edge on a sale below bid or buy above ask? Surely there must be plenty of big money that is traded on S/R and channel breaks alone, without regard to T&S. Anybody wonder about this as a way to stear the market in favor of a much larger position you may be holding?
Not sure im following...so this answer might not make sense..but... what the hell. You cant trade outside the spread. If you try to hit someone below the bid, your gonna hit the first guy in line at the bid instead. So if spread is 975.00 X 975.25 and you put in an order to sell at 974.75, the system is gonna match you with the guy at 975.00 and fill you there. peace axeman
Big money 's not going to pay any attention to small trades and they pay attention to t&s because continuous size is indicative of some one's interest, agenda, that may or may not be in their favor. You can never know the intent of the players, how many are arbing, how many are hedging , how many are option market makers laying off, how many are pure speculators etc. Obviously these people aren't playing late nite/ early morn. Some times I play 1 or2 lots NQ/ES early am, just go with the flow using what ever standard setups or ta you have and you can pick up a couple of bucks. I've never seen a 1 lot cause direction change or accelerate a move. I would never play more than 2 lots before an hour before the open.
interesting, i didn't know that, thanks axe. i assumed with a limit order, you could trade at any level. i do see plenty of trades outside the spread on thinner globex contracts, but it must be that my bid/ask in TS isn't updating fast enough.
On Globex there are always robots from market makers at least on french market I don't see the reason why they shouldn't also act on ES. In fact they are also present during RTH. These robots should prevent any big manipulation.
Basically it can't be done. Theres only one market and you cant execute away from the inside b/a. But if you'd like to take out 2 or 3 levels just to shake them out of thier stupor, be my guest.
Alot of times if you attempt to trade index futures during the Globex session, in an information vacuum(i.e. not watching the European or Asian markets simultaneously), you might be led to believe that your buys(sells) with small size at consecutive bids lower or offers higher is having some sort of impact on the market. However, if you were to watch the European indicies simultaneously, you might realize how lockstep Globex and the Euro markets are trading. All of a sudden, in a matter of a minute it might spike 3-5 ticks on massive size before resorting to the same dull, listless trading... The only other times that I have seen GLobex trade with a similar price structure, similar liquidity to RTH is during either A) Global financial crisis or B) Earnings season (typically mid January, mid April, mid July, mid October)
I've noticed that during after hours trading, stops at the high/lows can be setoff resulting in a cascade of stop activations. That's still a lot of capital to push the illiquid after hours market and probably wouldn't be worth it. Of course, if all that is standing between you and a new low is one lot, why the hell not? Short two lots and watch the stops blow. You'll still have buyers who'll jump in and push the price back higher, but if you're fast enough, you might be able to grab an extra point by sacrificing two cars.