The rally from March 2009 is fooling so many people, messing up so much of TA that its easy to conclude TA does not work. Even trendlines are failing left and right. For example, the Ending Diagonal Triangle, which I thought was solid evidence, has failed. But there is one feature that has stood up well across the board - the Oct 2 Daily wave low. Fib Support/Resistance still work well as guidelines. So, since the Oct 2 daily wave low was not breached, the Trend is still up.
The Dow 3-contact-points trendline was solid as gold. Applying the 3% of closing price guideline, the trendline has still held up despite the crack on Oct 30 (not updated). So in this case the trendline holds up but the break could have confused a trader/investor and sent him packing. But the Oct 2 wave low was not even threatened. Therefore TREND is UP.
Conclusion: Realtime is totally eliminated from Trend analysis. Too much confusion and way past the Law of diminishing Returns. Pure Monthly/Weekly/Daily engine with very much slimmed down components. The learning continues ..... sorry for the errors - all my fault.
No insurance is going to cover... especially when the likes of AIG declare force majeure... pocket all the cash... light a fire and burn all their policies and walk away from the liabilities. It's not going to be pretty these next 2 years.
One lesson for me in particular is the lack of patience to wait for the wave low to be taken out before calling a Top and ONLY THEN going short. This is my failing/shortcoming and not the fault of TA. Why this is so difficult to overcome does not just reside in impetuosity, its some deeply ingrained belief that I have to catch a top or bottom within centimetres ..... I know this is gross stupidity on a conscious level but getting it out of my system is just plain hard. Will keep trying .....
they're other indicators to look at.....oldie's that still work today. and they do say down.......as far as a sig. "tide change" i'll comment more later when I have more time.
Thanks PC - have a look at page 1 of this thread. That is my call for the next several years - possibly much more bearish view than yours? regards
Just the kind of thing Jones would do, namely the obvious, i.e. go to 161.8% extrapolation of the most obvious wave as shown in chart - and this after the numerous hints along the way up from March 2009 - hints such as ..... near perfect hits at 38.2%, 50%, then major July correction landing right at 61.8%, then even nailing 78.6%, 88.3% and using 100% as a springboard. The only one left is 161.8% @ 10,872.
Yet another hit as Jones bounces off 123.6% (support) on the very same grid. Not just approx., but a poy-fect hit!