Once the opening range is established and broken, both the upside and downside are rejected. Therefore, it's a relatively safe bet that that's going to be the range for the rest of the day.
No, but I suggest that looking for climactic volume and/or exhaustion may not be the appropriate focus since so little effort has been put into the selling so far. In other words, they're not even breathing hard. We ended up at the bottom of the support zone today. We'll see if prices represent value to bulls at these levels. If so, we'll have some valuable information to tuck away.
I hesitate to post this since it may be more confusing than helpful, esp if one doesn't understand that the results of any particular trade are unknowable, and is more inclined to forecast than focus on what is. However, the information contained in the chart may prevent somebody from being surprised. Technical analysis provides ample opportunities to deceive yourself into seeing what you want. -- Alexander Elder
db, I'm curious what your thoughts were ( are? ) on yesterdays vol. with the narrow price range. 03/09. Its got the highest daily volume, within the data range on your chart. It stood out to me, because of so much activity with out much price movement. So, to me, it was like a passing of the baton, and todays action pretty much tipped the hand of the intent of the overall direction. Maybe another way of saying this is, the old "long" holders, have sold, and the new "long" holders are not so strong. (Maybe it wasn't important?) Although, your bottom support zone line, is something I did not look at before this evening, so now I got something else to add to the mix. Thanks for the journal
I try to observe rather than speculate. Otherwise, I'd never be able to interpret volume. I do note that the differential between advancing volume and declining volume has been increasingly higher during each selloff, which is usually an important divergence. I also note that the number of new lows was less today than during the last selloff. Finally, I note that the market leaders are doing just fine, but then the movements of the indices are determined by those stocks which are most heavily weighted, which makes trading the indices particularly tricky. Most people can't understand the point in posting this stuff unless one is going to draw some sort of conclusion, but I hope that those who do understand will derive some benefit from these charts.
Well, lemme tell y'all why I closed my short at 14:05 EST today. Seemed like the right thing to do at the time. Basically if you look at DB's chart from 13:15-13:40, vol is definitely decreasing until the 13:40 bar which he has labelled "pot'l clmx". Then the next few bars are about each double the volume. In other words there's a whole lot more volume on the right of "pot'l clmx" (going up) then the left (coming down). That's why I got out.
However, the "going up" is largely an illusion. Note that the closes of the five bars after 1355 are virtually identical. IOW, price is going nowhere. You're noting the effort, but evaluate the result as well.