Reward is not so much of an issue when you're trading by PV since you must continuously adapt to changes in buying/selling pressures, i.e., the "waves". Therefore, I suggest you forget about targets and reward for now and concentrate on risk. If your entry's right and you manage the trade properly according to what's happening in real time, the reward will take care of itself.
Once upon a time when I was experimenting with 15m bars, I developed what I called a "trailing" 15m bar because I didn't like sitting around so much and being so late on moves which clearly began long before the bar was finished. Therefore, I put up a 5m chart and pictured a 3-bar window which moved with the completion of each bar. Therefore, the first 15m bar would consist of 0930 to 0945. The second 15m bar, however, would consist of 0935 to 0950, not 0945 to 1000. This enabled me to monitor more than one timeframe in my head without taking up extra real estate on my desktop. It also enabled me to blend bars in my head and detect "hidden" hammers and stars. It's a trick worth learning.
I've read most of the files you've posted and have followed the thread but I must admit it's still not entirely clear how volume behaves at support/resistance to confirm that it's providing sufficient supply/demand to contain the move or not. Current trading for example. assuming this area 82.5-84 is support zone from yesterdays trading. It appears that as we've moved to that zone that volume has pulled back and the volume trading on the bounce from 84 has been decreasing. Could you elaborate on your intrepretation of this as an example?
As I mentioned earlier, first support based on the market's behavior was at 87. I also said to watch for where the next SP formed. A lower low is a sign of weakness. Pulling back above S is a sign of strength. Finding S at more substantial S is also a sign of strength. Note also that ES has yet to drop below that LSL, which is also a sign of strength. As long as price keeps making lower lows, however, that strength just isn't enough. Price has to make a higher low, and it's perfectly okay to wait for it. If that strength dissolves and true weakness sets in, it's perfectly okay to wait for that, too.
HIgh volume means a lot of shares/contracts/whatever being traded. Look to the result. If it's a long downbar, that isn't good. However, you also have to consider what happens next, particulary if the S is "important" (in fact, one way of determining whether or not it's important is by what happens there). If, for example, the next bar is a substantial piercing bar, much less an engulfing bar, blend the two bars to get a better picture of what's going on. The most obvious implications here are for BO strategies. Clearly the most successful BOs are going to take place at S/R which are significant. Otherwise, the probability just isn't there. Waiting for that S/R to be broken can be maddening. But since the probabilities for bouncing are often equal to those for reversing, it generally pays to wait.
Do you ever consider time of day an important factor in trading ....market open/noon/etc. or is it simply price/volume overrides time fears...big economic reports, Greenspan, etc....? Thanks as always
A lot of nonsense is distributed regarding time of day and reports and so on, but this provides a good example of what it means to determine the truth for yourself by observing the territory yourself (PV) and drawing your own map, i.e., determine for yourself what is real and what is myth. You may find, for example, that low volume doesn't necessarily preclude trading, but you may also find that you must be extremely exacting in your criteria for taking or passing on a trade. Your mouth may water when you see the volume and price behavior surrounding an FOMC report, or you may think No way in hell. Again, the answer lies in the charts and in what you're prepared to trade.
db, I am sorry if this was discussed before, I sometimes find it very difficult to follow your posts because they are mixed up with so many questions and theories from other traders. What percentage of the information, you use for your trading decisions, represents price and volume (and time) for the particular instrument you are trading? I am referring only to the shortest time frames you trade. If there is something else you are taking in consideration, could you share what it is (like market indicators, or other market/instrument perhaps, etc.)? Thanks P.S. Perhaps I could rephrase the question like that: "What weight in your trading decisions has the price&volume information for the particular instrument you trade ?"
Just price and volume, support and resistance, though I track the ES and NQ simultaneously. I also note whether any market-moving reports will be issued and when, but there aren't very many of those. That's it.
I have been doing something similar with 5 and 30 minute bars focusing strictly on the SPY's.. I also use the diaily for overall S&R, trend, etc. I am not using indicators anymore, and and trading reversals.. I try to see overall support and resisiatnce and patterns with the 30 minute and use the 5 for entry patterns.. still learning volume though. PS: From your above post, are you JUST trading the Es and NQ or tracking them while trading individual stocks. I know it doesnt matter per se (b/c the concepts are the universal concepts), but I was asking more out of a curiousity standpoint.