I'm trying to learn how to predict future price and time. There are experts who can predict future price and time up to several months ahead and down to minutes. I'm not sure what is success rate for pattern, model, cycles, Gann, Astro, neural network to predict price and time. Is there good websites, books, tools, or software to do this? Thanks in advance,
Yes, several. There's an encyclopedia of info at: http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/newsletter.htm similar at eSignal, many different pages: http://www.esignalcentral.com/learning/default.asp http://www.enthios.com/FrontPage.htm http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=32368 All charting software has a fibo levels tool for price and many have a similar tool for time. Check Robert Miner's site for the Dynamic Trader program where after sign-up you should be able to download some pdfs of the methods he uses: http://www.dynamictraders.com/ Same for Fibonacci Trader: http://www.fibonaccitrader.com/ Also Advanced Get in EOD version 7.6 build 148 and realtime has several tools. Currently only provided by eSignal, expensive, but the EOD version is usefull as an addition to your realtime charting program.
you cannot predict the non existant future. the only thing that exists is now, and the past. I have physical evidence of now, as I just drank a glass of water and it is refreshing to me. I have physical evidence of the past, my dirty laundry piled up in my laundry hamper. However, I have no evidence, physical, metaphysical, or otherwise, of the future. I can opinion with probably great certainty what may happen in the non existant future, based on past history, however, I cannot predict it. if this post seems corny or silly, come back later and read it again, sit down and think about it. the only thing that anyone knows for certain is the last tick on the tape no one can predict the future
re: 'you can't do it'. Disagree: first, anyone making a trade IS predicting the future, they have predicted that the price will move in the direction of their trade, otherwise they'd have no trade to make. " the only thing that exists is now, and the past." the 'past' exists ??? Your " ... dirty laundry ..." exists in the present only until it's washed, then it exists in the past as your memory of its existence. There are people who can predict the future, particularly those who have psychic ability or pronounced intuition if you prefer, and there are many simple daily examples that such 'uncanny' experiences are a part of virtually everyones life experience. Certainly price targets are easily predicted with the fibonacci ratio, tho time is more difficult to target precisely. We don't re-experience the past except by recall, we certainly don't live in it and it does not therefore exist in those terms, likewise we do not live in the future, but the infinitely small separation between past, present and future is difficult to discern. The most practised at truly living in the present are usually practionioners of meditation in its various forms, or when the 'rest of us' are pushed to critical/overload when we focus exactly on the immediately important, being struck by a loosing trade perhaps. Prediction of the future whether or not based upon the past and whether or not an opinion is still prediction, without it our thinking would be locked in the past, we could not think what to do next.
Wallace, thanks for your links. I've reviewed them before but I'm not sure what their success rate is. How about Wave59RT software? I have tried to follow astro, cycles, pattern (butterfly, gartley, pesavento, elliot wave) but still hit and miss
Bruce: without having tested all the various trading software programs available including Wave59RT, I doubt any dedicated software can be 100 % correct all the time. Some users' complaints of Advanced Get (Elliott Wave tool) for instance is the count changes as the wave progresses; Elwave provides many alternate counts (12 !!) after analyzing the price which may be just as unhelpful. I use MetaStock Pro 7.2, it's missing several tools I'd like to have in it such as Advanced Get's Ellipse and MOB tools, both time and price projection tools extremely accurate more times than not, but it serves its purpose. Like the less expensive AmiBroker and others, one can program trading systems (Expert Advisors in MS) into charting programs that will provide profitable trades just Buying and Selling the signals; one may lose something off the first trade before the next signal but still have a profitable trade, but even mechanical trading systems can be 'whiplashed'. Essentially you need to develop your own trading system; test it in realtime with a small amount of capital or by paper trading in realtime (I'm not much for 'backtesting' or relying on its results). After that it's trading experience, refinement of one's analysis of the price movement, and refining the trading system when possible that increases profitable trading, of which a part will be loosing, but loosing minimally.