Joe's methods are nothing more than a regurgitation of Wyckoff principals, and I study Wyckoff. So yes, I use a modified version of the ol'joe.
Looking at this today (distracted, darn cold < I thought page 4 was interesting. This is a paper on Spanish stocks. It references the "SIBE is an electronic platform the connects the four stock exchanges that constitute the Spanish Stock Exchange (SSE)". I don't know if what is here is transferable to what exists in the U.S. or not. I tried to copy a excerpt but I could only send some selected text to 'clipboard'. After that I hit a wall. Sorry. http://www.core.ucl.ac.be/services/psfiles/dp04/dp2004_33.pdf -Stephen
I get my free charts here. If anyone knows a better place to get free charts (or cheap) of the e-mini S&P 500 futures, let me know. Delayed data is fine. -Stephen (Site was down, now up. Sunday 5PM eastern) http://www.walshtrading.com/index.php?p=quotes_charts
I've looked into this a little bit over the weekend and after some thought I'd have to say it makes things a whole lot more predictable. But I'd like to ask this; Why on earth would anyone trade reversals as opposed to retracements? I mean, really, comparitively speaking they just are not percentage plays. Unless its absolutely obvious, I just can't see the reasoning behind it. Steve
We may have different definitions for these terms: I trade confirmed reversals (a new trend in the opposite direction of the old trend), but I don't trade retracements (a temporary pause in a trend).
The key to the locked door is in the hours a trader spends in observing the behavior patterns of the price action in the financial instrument he/she is to trade. IMO that is the most important issue, indicators in my experiences serve as confirmation of the price action that has already taken place. Daily ranges are also extremely important as main participants in the market do trade of them. Knowing what has caused prices to oscillate during any given time during the day will also improve ones' win/loss ratio dramatically. Somebody very smart on ET has dropped a line "prices will always oscillate and trends will persist", one has to think over this statement and come to a logical conclusion that certain oscillations of prices during the day are there to create a shake-out. Experience will determine an understanding of "real and fake" intraday price actions. Knowing the latter will hopefully improve the timing of entry/exit. If you are referring to day trading, relying only on indicators might not give you the right timing, due to the lag factor. But, having said the above, a lot depends on your trading strategy. EDIT: I believe that in today's markets trading off price action puts a trader ahead of the one trading off indicators only when day trading. It is a very fast pace market now, my trading primarily relies on quick profits locked in, rather than sitting on a trade for a long period of time, because the indicators have previously suggested the positive outcome of the trade.
When you say "confirmed" do you mean by a retracement of sorts? (i.e to a S/R level) I think our definitions are the same, however my view on trading a reversal is that something in the price behavior would lead one to believe the trend is about to change. i.e divergence of some sort or a pattern like a 1-2-3 top/bottom. My experience with both techniques is more often that not, you land up with the short end of the stick. The reason being, simply put, one is trying to pick a top or a bottom.
Confirmed - An oscillation of Price verifying, depending on strength, that a short or long term top or bottom has been reached in that particular Market. You are so correct, Divergence and Pattern Recognition techniques are both "accidents waiting to happen" because of their inconsistency. You can't "Predict" a top or bottom but you can Confirm it by determining the strength of the oscillations that make them up.
This is a Swing Trading Chart of the E-Mini S&P. This is how I denote a confirmation during this time frame. 1257.00 is the Confirming Price Oscillation of the Bull Bottom having set in @ 1255.75. Every support oscillation thereafter failing to make a LL is a buying opportunity with the last oscillation resistance as a target. Price will continue to rise until it confirms a top. 1293.50 is the Confirming Price Oscillation of the Bull Top having set in @ 1299.75. Counter-Trend shorts are higher risk. Trade accordingly. 1280.75 is the Confirming Price Oscillation of the Bull Bottom having set in @ 1268.75. Every support oscillation thereafter failing to make a LL is a buying opportunity with the last oscillation resistance as a target. Price will continue to rise until it confirms a top.