Price action leading up to the dump at 10AM

yes fade the news.

Today I traded the OPG and AAPL before 9:50. then the waited it out. Eventually traded.

Total was a knockout fight for trading for me. Back and forth all day long.

tomorrow looking XOP (ETF) MGM and FCX on the long side

 

I traded AAPL short, then long between 9:34 and 9:51, had NO interest in a position on the news. Came back at 10:08 to reverse sides again. Saved myself the fight by cutting myself off after 11:00!

 

I will check my executions tomorrow once I get to the office in the AM. but long on the nice first extension.


I watched AAPL all day long if the market was going to bounce, but the late day move up was soon flushed out at the close.

Buyers did not show today and buy the dips and TRIN was bearish all day long and things were just in "overbought mode" all day long


correct me if Im wrong, but I think I saw your name in "Stocks and Commodities Magazine" -Q&A- not to long ago?

 

If it was a good question, yes. If it was a dumb question, wasn't me.

 

Well, if you look at index futs, you'll see a perfect doji top on the ES around 3 am on the hourly. Then right before the news there's an attempt to rise from the base (retest) that produced a gigantic wick on the upside, meaning it was sold off hard. This means the market already made up its mind what its gonna do with the news. Plus consumer confidence is BS news. I mean; uncle Guber and aunt Ginnie, what do you think about the state of the economy and finances? Really? Economic news? LOL

The good news is, you could seek a lot of confirmation signals for the above pa (ym, fdax, oil, gold, eur), and if the constellation is such, you have a pretty strong pa to support a short decision. The bad news is, it works, oh, about 50% of the time these days...

 

Same thing about to happen right now as Bernanke speaks and the New Homes Sales data should be screaming ***bloody murder!***

10am -- time stamp of many suicidal longs

 

That is a good point as positive volume did actually back off 3 minues before the news release

NiN

 

Well, I certainly hope you're not short now, either.

 

The daily chart was pointing to the fact that it was going to be a down day b/c of the no demand up thrust daily bar on no volume. Thus, it was reasonable to say that 2/23/10 was going to be a down day as the lack of demand turns into selling.

Now, predicting a 10 point, 15 min bar dump ? Not gonna happen. I had a reasonable idea of what was going to happen and I still didnt make that move. Oh well

 

Exactly. I was guessing a down day and I didn't even know about the news at 10. I think no matter what the news was it was going to go down.