The answer's on your screen. Timing is the issue. You took the short the first time it cracked the pivot. What if you wait until the second time?
So my adventures for the day. Not bad overall, 11 pts. I need to hold a little longer at times I think. I tend to get nervous I will lose my gains and take what's on the table at times. Thanks epetrov for the advice earlier on using a smaller volume chart. It has helped me tremendously to improve my entries.
The previous swing high is 1402. My entry was 1375. That's a 27 point stop...leads me to believe this was a bad trade to begin with. Worked much better at the second crack, but prices reversed some 16 points from there, after declining 20... A second chart shows much better entries (red lines) that I didn't see the first time.
5 trades 5 losers Really poor trading today. I took a full stop on almost all of my trades today. Criticism and suggestions welcome...
1st trade: tough call, although you took it on 3rd bar with no confirmation (previous bar had LL than 2nd previous bar, you want the opposite normally in a down trend and 3BR) 2nd trade: never take a trade after doji 3rd trade: same thing doji 4th trade: you took trade on the 3rd bar, with no confirmation 5th trade: you shorted after a HH Hope this helps
Today was just a tough day I think, I got faked out by that same action at around 9:30 on your chart (8:30 on mine), tried a couple of quick shorts (both losers) before realizing what the game was and scalping a long. But I could have easily been beaten down all day... It's sort of odd to say but I think you basically didn't take enough trades. I had 1048.75 marked as support which was broken around 10:25 on your chart, that was good for a couple of shorts (rather poorly executed on my part), and then at your 11:13 we had a textbook support-turned-resistance. I would also suggest marking support/res areas on your charts.
Nothing is 100%, but your stops should be closer and still be above/below the immediate pivot. For me, I see another trade between the two you marked. A place to add or if you missed the first opportunity, to get in on another leg. You also have to figure out the character of the market, as it is prone to change. Right now the game is tough. I'm taking quick profits during the mid-day hours. You can let 'em ride when the market is moving to another price level.
About 10% of my trades are just like this. I take them because I feel like I'm missing out on a big move. As with you, they cost me more than they make me. The trend was down, so you had that part right. Just look to enter closer to resistance to keep your stops smaller and give it more room to run to support.
Thanks for the response. Bernanke's speech during the session didn't help either. Exactly why I got into this trade, I thought I was going to lose out. I need to sit back and pick better entries and be more patient. Thanks for the critiquing all.
The ES can be really frustrating, but I've found that the Aussie SPI 200 contract is a great vehicle for learning price action. Much thinner than the US indexes, but also much less noise and it sticks to S/R like a glove. The SPI (Esignal symbol is APS) trades on the Sydney Futures Exchange from around 4pm to 11:45 Pacific time. One tick = one point = 25 Australian dollars.