It seems everywhere you look you can find someone predicting a recession in the US. This includes the checker at Kroger this morning. The price action in treasury yields leans in that direction as well. Consumer staples are being bid up also confirming a recession. Donât get me wrong I find great opportunity in recessions, but this will be one of the most anticipated recessions in history. Maybe it will turn out to be a self fulfilling rescission, but this all seems to obvious, markets donât work that way.
Junk bond funds are still holding up well. Look at TSHYX, it has to close below 4.80 before a bear market starts, if it does then watch out. I hope we close at 1440, so I can start buying for the next run-up.
I highly doubt a recession will happen, and if it doesn happen I doubt it will entail the downside shorts are hoping for.
We obviously stand a very good chance of a recession. Whether that happens or not no one knows and we will have to wait and see. BUT we have a lot of conditions out there that lead to recession. The global economies are certainly helping US Mutli's but that I don't see as being able to keep us a float as the markets and bulls have been relying on. The consumer is likely going to cut back spending due to rising GAS/energy prices, declining equity in their home, forclosures and general economic fears that affect consumer confidence and spending. I think this retail season can very well be the nail in the coffin for the economy or at least it will be the deciding factor. Housing is in a recession anyone can see that. Financial crisis is going on for banks/financial institutions with the credit crunch. Whenever Housing tanks historically we have gone into recession. And the housing sector is in it's biggest recession ever. Lots of nasty scenarios unfolding out there. I don't have PHD in Economics,,,,only a Bachelors. But I'd bet my bachelors we either get a few qtrs of negative GDP growth or we come damn close. 10-15% correction will come soon for the markets. If we don't hold aug lows...well we could see a good pullback for the markets. I'm bearish for the foreseeable future, near term till I see clarity of direction for the economy and the markets. HAPPY TRADES!
I think were nearing a recession now. To think this economy can run for another 5-10 years without a recession you have to be foolish.
Why would Consumer stables rally if a recession occurs ? What exactly is consumer stables ? I thought if there is a stock plunge of 30%, wont these also plunge with the others.
I think the reason why you want a recession is so that we enter a bear market. That won't happen because slowing growth is alreayd priced in.
"stables" = staples Necessities of life... liquor, cigarettes, toilet paper, condoms, etc. They tend to go down less than the rest of the market during perceived difficult times in the economy.