Price action: confirming recession in 2008?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by makloda, Nov 15, 2007.

  1. I am trying to remain agnostic to economic forecasts, but some of the market price action feels like it's pricing in a definite recession within 6-12 months, just looking at the charts without any emotions. Opinions/comments/additions welcome:

    2 year yield vs. Fed Fund Target Rate spread now approx. 1 full point:

    10 year yield - broke support. Looks more like DEFLATION rather than INFLATION to me:

    Sector price action:

    Consumer staples about to make new 52w highs. Who on earth is pushing the staples unless money that believes we're headed for a recession:

    Energy sector stocks... A series of higher volume down days. Topping out soon?

    Semis.. just looks like puke after a gigantic Shoulder-Header-Shoulder
  2. not that it matters to you, but you just gained my respect. even if you were a permabull.
  3. I have some more recession scenario pieces :

    1) up to 500 billion in write downs associated with subprime mess

    2) deteriorating ABX index


    3) Expected deteriorating investmentbank / commercial bank earnings for the next couple of quarters

    4) Higher delinquency rates on credit cards

    5) Mr. Bush still ruling the U.S.

    6) Slowing retail sales

    7) FED cutting rates

    8) Widening TUT Spread

    9) Meredith Whitney is short Citibank
  4. Yup, rolling over

  5. Adobian


    If this were true, how long this recession will last ?
  6. I don't think there is a way of telling ever how long/deep a recession (any recession) will be before it actually happens.
  7. This does not answer your question but it's a good leading indicator. When the fed starts to raise rates the worst is usually over.

  8. I knew you were to smart to stay a permabull when the evidence was screaming otherwise.
  9. Finally, we have some clarifiying insight ! :)
  10. Fixed income traders have correctly forecast 15 of the last 2 recessions....
    #10     Nov 16, 2007