Whether you will win or not going contrarian will depend on avgwin/avgloss. Examples: (1) Assume avgwin/avgloss = 1, win rate = 0.9 Expectancy = 0.9 x k - 0.1 x k = 0.8 x k yes, you make money. (2) If avgwin/avgloss = 0.1 Expectancy = 0.9 x 1 x k - 0.1 x 10 x k = -0.1 x k no, you lose. (don't ask what k stands for, I have no time for that). This is what will happen if you try to go contrarian a trend-following system. You lose only 10 in 100 but the sum of those 10 is more then the sum of the 90 you win. Gee, too many newbies starting to show up. Time to trade heavily...Are you trading my friend? Make my day, say yes...
True I have never seen any "footprint" chart. NinjaTrader is said to it includded but it don't use NTr. Could anyone using it post an intraday chart here please. Thanks!
tons of examples on their website. You can also get a free 30 day trial. http://www.marketdelta.com/Footprint_Chart
This is a remarkable statement from that link: "Also, when it comes to meeting the "post trade transparency" requirements of MiFID and the Dodd Frank Act, nothing helps accomplish this like the Footprint® Chart." Give us a break.. teher are no chart traders left with more than a dime in their accounts...
I think it is worth stepping back from the market and taking a look at the ingredients relative to oneanother. Presently we so know that market owners and operators do not work skillfully with their members. Recent legislation may lead to regulations that actually deal with those who do not behave according to their fiduciary repsonsibilities. A scientist looking at the markets doesn't really care about the contemporary misbehavior, anyway. Market variable evolution is as you say a matter of event after event. Market data conveys this to processors that create information. Surrounding the Present, this information, in terms of the philosophy of history, has various values informational importance). Most people bunch the information and apply it to their plan, strategy and routine. Hence stochastics appears in the space in an assortmnt of ways. I process information in a way that is not oriented to any probabilities. I really appreciate your viewpoint on the instructive nature of using probabilities; the tooling throughout the financial industry is very impressive as to how using probability is the way to go. Clay is a good example of how many many particles can be used to create a uniform result. With a little water, clay can be made into mud that seeks the bottom of the container. I avoid probabilities entirely by looking at the stream of data instead. The interelation of the variables in the chain of events says it all to me. To give you a glimpse of this orientation, I see only so many combinations of these items. Since the number is small, I looked further to see and list the how each of the combinations related to any other combination. One set of combinations, I call monitoring. The relating of combinations I call analysis. By stepping back, I found that the elements in the monitoring set had a one to one relationship with given elements in the analysis set. I found myself sitting in the realm of finite math and NOT in any way dealing with the realm of probability. I found that this is THE division of information theory into its two most major parts. By having two sets, each small and finite, and by having the list of the one to one relationship between different set's elements, I could then simplify how the market moved from event to event and I named the two categories of trains of events. These were the two categories of events as espoused by Behavioral Finance once Behavioral Finance got invented. So you may see that monitoring is one thing and analysis is another. In terms of events analysis it is the event rate of change of monitoring In calculus this is the first derevative relative to an independent variable). Events are my indepenendent variable. The market either has an event rate of change or it does not (none is a zero mangnitude.). If similar events follow one another, then I construe the market to be continuing. If different events are occuring one after another, then I construe the market to be changing. This foundation, I built upon. You may have seen, in a volume bar orientation, a person (ProfLogic) use powers of 7 to build adjacent fractals. At some power the charts became of high utility for using their data to construct an indicator for collecting signals based on the position of the indicator on its mapping. I did an approach that was connected to the interlocking nature of fractals based on using the above building blocks I mentioned. A 3:1 ratio of continuation is the result. To be super specific, lets look at the way the two sets mentioned work on all fractals and in the same identical way. For analysis, look at the cases of the variables singly (meaning the cases of each variable independently) and collectively. This is three sets where there are finite elements in each of the three sets. We convinced many platforms to directly, or by the use of snippets, to produce some or most of these cases. In 1990, we lost track of users then known to exceed 10^4. What happens is the building blocks go from fastest possible fractal to slower trading fractals. I think it is abundantly clear that the market gives signals much more frequently than probabilistic traders want them and as a consequence it is difficult or impossible for these traders to only use pertinent signals. You also may note that probabilisitic traders cannot use the most common indicators successfully. Non probabilisitic traders can, however, Consider what is a trading fractal. It is a convenient context for using finite math monitoring and analysis sets that came from the fastest and inconvenient granular level of fractal. We did reason that fractals are not time based but event based. Further, we see that Behavioral Finance establishes that events are either continuation or change. For convenience, we trade on platforms that follow the CW convention of "bunching data" (timeframe based bars) and using probability stuff. Mostly I support learning here using a 5 minute V and P chart on the ES. The ten analysis cases on any given bar duration chart are well known; they morph into the elements of the pattern which has its order of events for extracting all of the market's offer. The pattern is an integration of three price moves and four volume moves. The pattern accommodates fluctuations in any aspect of markets such as volatility, momentum, increasing strength or weakness etc., you name it. There is no noise nor anomalies. The pattern assures an order of events is unfolding. This is anticipated all of the time. For making money, any person can begin in the most convenient context, like a simple V, P 5 minute chart. In 1957, I began crudely by using EOD charts I pencilled on brownlines blueprinted from a masterr I inked using vellum. It ws clear to me when I drew the master chart that finite math was the solution to systemizing the market paradigm. From my beginning stock trading, I just continued to extract the market's offer (10% every 6 to 8 days which I called the natural cycle). I never considered probabilistic trading as a possible means to make money. Today on the ES I use 10 to 12 leading indicators of price. Price lags just about all forms of information. A simple way to get my drift is to set up an ES OTR V and P chart. There you can observe the analysis pattern: three price moves with four integrated volume moves.
B............. thanks a lot. As I had said I had not heard yet of footprint-charts. Quite interesting hwowever, still a bit of guesswork needed as fas I have seen at first sight. Don't use Ninja as mentioned before.
#################################### Frankly no idea what you mean. Does it refer to US traders only?
Good program. Another interesting part of it besides the patterns is the indicator. Very good signals for position trading. There is another option to calculate the optimum number of delay bars for patterns during the search. Quite interesting feature. Drawback is that you cannot pause search and restart later.