Prepare For Nasty Action Next Week As "11th Hole" Is Released This Monday

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, May 14, 2010.

SPY Next Week

  1. Bullish

    22 vote(s)
    34.4%
  2. Flat

    8 vote(s)
    12.5%
  3. Bearish

    31 vote(s)
    48.4%
  4. I prefer not to say

    3 vote(s)
    4.7%
  1. bl33p

    bl33p

    I'm not especially concerned about the selling, it's probably Euro banks and institutions selling now that SPX has skyrocketed on EUR terms. They need the money and now is the best time to cash out.
     
  2. I'm holding stocks with less beta that have sunk a lot, in case the market decides to swing up. RIMM & JPM. RIMM behaved itself rather nicely on Friday, after dumping Thursday. And I was able to capture X at 51.97 on Friday.
     
  3. extreme VIX and "the persistent Friday effect" are two things that may help you. i like to quote the quantifiable edge blog because the author has some nice studies that have proven spot on many times. the Fri-to-Mon easy money is puzzling but it did work again last week with 4% gain.

    but i am betting on the downward momentum from last week.


     
  4. picking things that work out of a bin/group of possibilities is known as "cherry picking"

    Gee, on down Fridays this past year, it has been nice...
     
  5. the investors are weary but still on the bullish side. this is inconsistent with a major bottom in place. to really bottom out we need to see some investors screaming. i am thinking "Dow breaks down below 1000" headline may do the trick. This is still 7% away.


    1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?

    Bullish 46.41% 233 votes
    Bearish 42.03% 211 votes
    Neutral 11.55% 58 votes

    http://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-news/10603675/poll-bull-or-bear.html?kval=dontmiss
     
  6. to add some anecdotal evidence to the bullish investor sentiment: a friend of mine bought last friday May 7. he is not a market timer and likes to sit on his positions for as long as possible. i don't recall him making many great investments so i am guessing that he is wrong again about the uptrend continuing.

    what do your relatives, friends and random folks say about the market direction?
     
  7. My prediction the market will be about flat this year. Rather higher than lower but not by much.
     
  8. to add some confusion to the sentiment, i will quote mark hulbert:

    "Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). This sentiment index currently stands at 20.5%.

    That's more than six percentage points below where it stood a week ago, despite the Dow being several hundred points higher.

    Since the usual pattern is for advisers to become more bullish as the stock market rises, this is a surprising development. It suggests that there is a strong undercurrent of skepticism among investment advisers about the market's ability to rise.

    And that's another way of saying that there is a strong wall of worry that the bull market can continue to climb. "
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sentiment-picture-improves-further-2010-05-14?reflink=MW_news_stmp

    so, while the investors are neutral-leaning-bullish (see my post above), the newsletter writers are extremely bearish. if one wants to be a contrarian, it is not clear which camp to fade

    :(
     
  9. einai

    einai

    my friends and relatives are lathering at the mouth to get back into this market ASAP.

    they are all bottom calling.

    myself, i just bought a house for cash, i am not buying stocks until medium term prospects become visible, which they are not at this time

    so my observation is that retail investors are eager to get back in because they are greedy, but myself i wouldn't buy anything (trading aside) that i couldn't rationally justify as a value investment
     
    #10     May 15, 2010