PreEarnings Trade NTRI Long

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by chuckles, Jul 24, 2006.

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  1. chuckles


    We are holding a long position on NTRI shares ahead of earnings due after market close today.

    We believe that NTRI should be able to beat consensus estimates, which are at:

    Revenue: $123.45 Million
    EPS: $0.46 (including stock option expenses) and $0.49 (excluding stock option expense)NTRI has consistently beat their own guidance and consensus estimates.

    In the past four quarters, the stock has always appreciated after earnings announcements in the range of 2-34%. We believe that NTRI can yet again easily beat consensus estimates given solid business momentum throughout the quarter and continued expansion of operating margins. Additionally, NTRI has been able to aggressively attract more male users and at the same time maintain solid growth from female customers.

    NTRI shares have fallen from the $76+ level in May to the $67 level today. We believe that shares have fallen due to overall market weakness, and believe that at the $67 price level shares represent an attractive value.

    Based on past post-earnings moves for NTRI shares, we expect shares to move +/- 10-30%+ and as such, we believe this earnings-related trade is only suitable to traders with a high risk tolerance. This is strictly an earnings trade. As is the case with all of our earnings trades, we plan to close our position in NTRI shares either in the extended hours trading session or in tomorrow's regular trading session at the latest.
  2. Great call. Stock up 3.00 today and down 7 in after hours trading. So much for being a stock Guru.
  3. qll


    i intend to trade $100k to $200k NTRI tomorrow. Could you tell me should I long or short it? I will open it after 9:30 and close before 3:30. never follow the stock. don't understand why it beats but dropped. if i can not receive an acceptable answer from OP, i will just trade along trend, otherwise, i may trade against it overnight.

    I am on CC now, it is 530. sounds good but down to 56.55.
    Don't understand it. I may have to open in after market. Unbelievable reaction to their financial data.

    Now it is in question section. Very important.
  4. qll


    first question from

    CITIGROUP INC 3/31/2006 535,018 289,097 117.56% $34,749

  5. jho


    Uhhhhh ... *looks around* ... you weren't joking were you?
  6. qll


    bought 200 shares of NTRI at 56.7
    stop loss at 54. target is 65.
  7. qll


    what do you mean?
    i am NOW bullish on this stock at least for 2 days.
  8. The stock has had a 2087% increase since January of last year. I think it might be due for a pullback.:D
  9. qll


    not true.
    they are better than expected. also pre-earning is bullish. everything is better than thought. i am still on cc. sounds really good.
    it is now 57.7, up 100c from my entry point 20min ago.

    i am really short of overnight capital now. wish somebody lends more 1m to 5m. i have to wait tomorrow morning to open intra day positions, otherwise, i will long another 1000-2000 shares tomorrow. got only 700k intra day buying power. need some room to live another day.
  10. Better than expected is meaningless. You have your published analyst estimates and you have your whisper analyst numbers. Apparently they did not meet the whisper numbers.
    #10     Jul 24, 2006
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