More upside predicted, said its "FULLY VALUED" and will get more expensive, said rates wont raise until 2011. People are getting too excited about this continued market run, these same ones in now will be selling as soon as the last fools start buying, it always happens. Surprised people forget so quick about past collapses. New Years Rally to Continueâfor Now Published: Friday, 8 Jan 2010 | 8:28 PM ET Text Size By: Patti Domm Executive Editor Stocks swung higher into the new year and could continue an upward drift as the fourth-quarter earnings season gets going. The first major Dow component, Alcoa [AA 17.02 0.41 (+2.47%) ], reports earnings Monday and there are just several more major namesâJPMorgan Chase [JPM 44.70 -0.09 (-0.2%) ] and Intel [INTC 20.83 0.23 (+1.12%) ]âreporting later in the week. Analysts expect corporate profits to mostly show improvement from last year's period, when the big deluge of earnings news starts after the middle of the month. Most of the action in the week ahead will come from a heavy dose of economic reports, including December retail sales and the Fed's beige book on the economy. The Treasury also auctions another $80 plus billion in notes and bonds in the coming week. The Dow gained 1.8 percent to 10,618 in the first week of 2010, while the S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent to 1144. There were some quiet days in the past week as the indices moved slightly, but markets saw heavy action under the surface as investors rotated fresh money into favored sectors. The big S&P sector winners: financials, materials, energy and technologyâall of them up more than 5 percent for the week. "I think we start the year with a lot of momentum and move higher," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. Ablin said he hates to admit it, but right now his view fits the consensus in that he sees the market moving higher through the first half before falling off later in the year. Ablin pointed out that the S&P 500 in the past week was roughly 18 percent above its 200-day moving average. "We went back to 1926, and three-quarters of the time (the market was at that level), it moves higher over the next year and the average return is 16 percent. I would say we have had a running head start into 2010 with a lot of momentum," he said. "It's going to take a market that is fully valued and turns it into an expensive market, and maybe in May or June, it will roll over and then we're going to sell, raise cash and get out," he said. Ablin said he is still "pro cyclicals," since his first half view is positive. He likes financials, consumer discretionary, basic materials and technology. "My sense is the weaker dollar is ultimately going to help industrials, but I think the big surprise that people aren't really talking about is trade," he said. "...it is remarkable there's a chance we would see a positive trade balance through the course of the year." He said earnings should see double-digit gains and could be a catalyst for stocks. However, he said one issue that could disturb markets later in the year is the expected shortfall in state budgets. "June 30 is the fiscal year for all states. These states have spent this fiscal year expecting a certain revenue roll and they haven't gotten it," he said. Analysts also expect the growing federal budget deficit to become a bigger factor for markets and the wind-down of federal stimulus money. "I don't think the Fed touches rates until 2011, but I do think a lot of this fiscal stimulus is going to start wearing off, and that's probably in the third quarter," he said. But for now, stocks should keep making gains. "I just think we could still see a nice steady market...There's a lot of power to inertia, and that's what I'm going with," Ablin said. "I'm still overweight, even though I think we're full-valued." He said he does expect the rising market to eventually suck in the cash sidelined in money market funds and elsewhere. "I think if the market surprises people to the upside, they'll keep jumping back in. It'll feed on itself, and once it turns, I'd rather sell first and ask questions later," he said.
This is one of the highest predictions to date as of now, dow 15,000 by 2011, but before that great number he expects a 20-30% correction, damn, I dont know if his math is right though, he says "IF" the low in 2010 is 10,000 then a 50% rally brings the dow to 15k, however though if he is predicting a 20-30% correction in 2010 how the hell can the dow reach 15,000 by 2011. Current dow 10700 X 20-30% correction = 8560-7490 Now a 50% rally off that is 12840-11235 TALK about being a great and wise "STRATEGIST" DOW 15k, I can picture it now in all its great glory, dow 15k and beyond. The train will never stop, the enthusiasm behind this great bull rally is just incredible. 20%-30% Correction â Then Rally to Dow 15,000: Strategist Published: Thursday, 14 Jan 2010 | 4:16 PM ET Text Size By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading near 10,700, but Jeff Hirsch, editor at Stock Traders Almanac told investors that the index could reach 15,000 by 2011. He shared his insights. âItâs based upon the average move from the mid-term low to the pre-[Senate] election high of about 50 percent,â Hirsch told CNBC. He expects there will be a pullback at some point in the Dow of 20 to 30 percent, which would create a buying opportunity before a 50 percent rally. âSome years have been low and some years have been higherâitâs an extrapolation from: if the low in 2010 is 10,000 then a 50 percent move is 15,000,â he said. âThis is based on historical market action in the four-year cycle.â In addition, Hirsch expects 400 new ETFs to be launched in 2010. âWe believe ETFs will be a big market driver,â he said.
S&P to End Year Above 1250âSo Invest Here: Market Pro Published: Tuesday, 2 Feb 2010 | 11:39 AM ET By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate After a volatile January, stocks have been showing signs of a rally in the last few sessions. How will markets look for the rest of the year and how should investors position their portfolios? Uri Landesman, head of global growth at ING Investment Management, shared his market outlook. âShort-term, I think weâre in a relatively narrow range of S&P 1,040 to 1,140,â Landesman told CNBC. âWe'll probably rally for the next few days, but we're in a tight range.â Landesman said he expects a broader range over the year, of between 1,000 and 1,300. âWeâre going to end the year in the 1,250 to 1,275 range,â he added. Investors should avoid China as it could be difficult in the first half, advised Landesman. âIâm still a long-term believer in the story but right now, Iâd be on the sidelines,â he explained. Instead, Landesman recommended looking into the large-cap names. âWeâre raising our allocation towards the larger capitalization names in the portfolio, and think the U.S. is going to be one of the best performing markets in the world this year, led by the high-quality super cap names,â he said. Landesman Favors: U.S. vs. Foreign Stocks Technology Consumer Staples Industrials HMOs and Pharma/Biotech Within Health Care
Predictions are dangerous. I have learned over 14 years of trading to forget about predictions. Just trade the market in front of you.
According to Mr. stovall the market is ready to rebound back to 2010 highs, small correction is all the market needed to get it all warmed up for dow 11,000. So I guess this means start buying because the only direction is up according to all these fools. Markets Likely Rebounding to 'Recovery Highs': S&P's Stovall Published: Wednesday, 17 Feb 2010 | 11:09 AM ET Text Size By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate Markets opened higher on Wednesday, after the Dow logged its best day in three months on Tuesday. Is the correction over and should investors start putting their money in stocks? Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poorâs, shared his insights. âThe correction of 8.1 percent on a closing basis and 10 percent on an intraday basis is over,â Stovall told CNBC. âWeâre probably going back to the recovery highs.â Stovall explained how the European debt crisis is affecting the U.S. dollar and what to expect going forward. âWhen we had the concerns about the sovereign debt crisisâ¦European currencies weakened in a flight to safety to the U.S,â he said. âBut by the end of this year, weâll probably go back to the weaker dollar environment. Because of the increased debt situation in the U.S. and the lack of the willingness of the Fed to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, weâll probably see a weaker dollar moving forward.â Stovallâs Recommendations: Overweight Health care Industrials Underweight Telecom Utilities
More upside, 17% to be exact....... 'Powerful' 17% S&P Growth in 2010: Equity Strategist Phil Dow Published: Monday, 1 Mar 2010 | 12:17 PM ET Text Size By: CNBC.com staff Stocks held minor gains Monday, after reports showed that consumer spending stayed even but US manufacturing grew in February. What's ahead for markets? Phil Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management, and Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, offered their insights to CNBC. "This is what we're going to see in 2010: two steps forward, one step back," Lancz said. "You'll have to be a nimble investor and look outside the box to make money in 2010. I don't see significant progress through the rest of the year." Dow was a bit more optimistic. He conceded the prevalence of "threatening and scary headlines like earthquakes...central banks' problems over in Europe." But, Dow maintained, one must balance the problems against "the positives": "There's a powerful subplot developing versus the anxiety: earnings estimates going up, economic growth rates going up. That leaves room for upside." He called for 1300 on the S&P, or "roughly 17 percent [growth] for the year."
This is from yesterday, thought it was funny to see her announce once again that she is bullish and thinks fair value on the s$p is 1250-1300. My question is if the s$p were to get there by June 1st and she went on cnbc the next day would she say that the markets are fairly valued???? Would she now raise here price target on the s$p to 1450-1500? When does she ever decide its time to take profits, or are all bulls greedy? S&P 500 fair value 1,250 to 1,300: Goldman's Cohen NEW YORK Tue Mar 9, 2010 12:30pm EST NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Tuesday her team's in-house view put the S&P 500 stock index's .SPX fair value at between 1,250 and 1,300. Hot Stocks Speaking in an interview on CNBC television, Cohen said equities probably offered better returns and valuations relative to bonds and it was unlikely that the U.S. economy will slip right back into a recession. "Clearly over the last several weeks it has become less likely in our view that there will be a double-dip (recession)," she said. "The jobs number is looking less bad, demand for things, new orders for new equipment, retail spending are beginning to improve." The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 4.77 points, or 0.42 percent, at 1,143.27 in midday trading on Tuesday. It is up 69 percent since hitting bottom on March 9, 2009.
Dow 12,000 by end of 2010 and fresh highs by 2012.... Dow Headed to 12,000 after 'Brief Hiatus'? Published: Monday, 15 Mar 2010 | 1:45 PM ET Text Size Stocks slipped Monday even as credit card data pointed to an easing of consumer woes. Where's the market headed? Jim Hardesty, president of Hardesty Capital Management, and Doug Cliggott, US equity strategist at Credit Suisse, offered CNBC their insights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has only stalled temporarily, and it will rise to reach 12,000 by the yearâs end, Hardesty said. âWe're seeing an economy thatâs recovering, which is good news, and I think weâre seeing a market thatâs valuation is not fully reflecting the potential earnings in 2011,â he said. âI think [that] says that this is just a brief hiatus and that weâre going higher.â Hardesty added that despite a bigger risk premium brought on by the âtraumaticâ events of 2008, the Dow should easily penetrate its previous high of 14,164 by 2012. The index was lower at about 10,580 as of this writing. Counterpoint: Cliggott took issue with Hardesty's projection, saying he thinks strong earnings have already been priced into the market. But he does see opportunity: Cliggott is particularly focused on M & A opportunities within biotech, and in exploration and production within the energy sector. âWe see these segments as really being targets of the much larger companies in the respective sectors,â Cliggott said.
Dow Could Hit 14,000 Before Next Crash, Says Phil Town Posted Mar 25, 2010 09:15am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession Related: apol, dv, esi, ^dji, dia, spy, ^gspc "I can see this market at 14,000," says investor and author Phil Town. Using the secular bear market of the 1970s as his road-map, Town thinks the market might continue its upward swing and then crash once again, continuing the boom bust cycle of the last ten years. Town's investment strategy won't change either way. It is "not about guessing the market right," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. Town doesn't look at the broad indexes as a guide. And, neither should you, if you want to get rich, he recommends. "If you want to be a great investor and really start taking control of your finances I think you have to start looking for individual companies," says the author of Payback Time. Bull or bear market, Town believes there's always undervalued companies that make good investments. He suggests finding a few businesses one can understand really well and then investing accordingly. He's currently looking at several education-related stocks, in the belief higher education is a winning investment as long as unemployment remains above normal. He specifically mentioned ITT Educational Services, Apollo Group and Devry.
Bears Are Dead Wrong: S&P Will Reach 1,300 by Year's End, Altucher Says Posted Mar 29, 2010 10:51am EDT by Heesun Wee in Investing, Recession Related: ^dji, ^gspc, dia, spy, ^ixic, appl, tlt As the market continues its climb of 70 percent-plus off the lows, and the gap widens between the housing and stock markets, the bears are convinced of a downturn -- any day now. But our guest James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, disagrees. "The bears have been consistently wrong throughout this whole rally," Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "If you followed the bears' advice at the bottom you'd be dead broke right now." For full disclosure, Altucher did not call the market crash in 2008. "Better to be consistently bullish than consistently bearish." Altucher points to the common arguments the bears make -- and why they're wrong: Lots of homes are in foreclosure or under water: That's true but there are bright spots in housing data including the Case-Shiller reports, Altucher notes. That housing index has been up the past six months, suggesting prices are stabilizing, he adds. All the growth we're seeing is just inventory rebuild. Businesses cleared their inventory in anticipation of the 2010 Great Depression that never happened. Now businesses are scrambling to restock, spurring growth in the economy that's likely to last for one to two years at least. "People are going to be surprised how fast and furious this inventory rebuild is going to happen," Altucher says. Unemployment is 9.7%.Yes but other jobs data show a rise in part-time hours, hourly pay, hours per week, and number of temporary workers. And these are all precursors to gains in fulltime jobs, Altucher explains. "Before this is fully over we're going to see new all-time highs again. And I do think that we're going to see 1,300 by the end of the year on the S&P," Altucher says.