Predictions for 2012 (evaluating them)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pekelo, Dec 25, 2012.

  1. Pekelo


    Before anyone will get confused, this thread is for the evaluation of predictions made for this year and not for 2013. There will be a similar thread where you can shine up your crystal ball and make your prediction.
    If you made a prediction about a year ago, don't hesitate to revisit it and you can post it here for everyone to see. Assuming you guessed correctly of course.

    Before I criticize anyone else, it is nice to see how I did, so let's start with myself. I did have a pretty good crystal ball this year and almost all of my calls were right on the money. So let's see:


    1. I was a bit conservative on the market. Although I got the direction right, the market is up 12% right now. This was a rather easy one, since almost every election year is bullish. I was expecting more of a sell off after the election...

    2. NFLX went up first from 95 but then as a good little boy tanked and bottomed around $53. I posted then:

    3. Of course GRPN went down like the Titanic and overshot my target of $10. Still an excellent call, there was no heat on this one...

    So I give 2.5 points out of 3 to myself, but wait, there is more! Posted one day before the election:

    1. Of course the Electoral College win was a landslide. (don't bitch about it, it is not in Politics)
    2. 3 days after the election on Friday, the market bounced back from -4.2%.

    So 2 more excellent predictions bring up my average to 4.5 out of 5. I got my ball at a Thrift Store, but I shined it really well... :)

    How well did you do in 2012???
  2. I predicted that if I did the right thing, it would pay off. It did: I am up about 50% this year.
  3. Pekelo


    Since I promised Surf that I would revisit his predictions, here they are:


    1. Correct, got the direction right, a pity he didn't put a number on it.
    2. Bad (or so-so at most). Although midyear the Euro did go down to 1.2, by mid-Sept it was back where it was in January and now it is slightly higher.
    3. Not good. Because of the Swiss banks' peg, there was very little movement between the Franc and the Euro. At most it was 2%...
    4. Good. The yen weakened 10% against the dollar this year, although didn't collapse.
    5. Very bad call. Gold took off in 2012, came back to the baseline, then took off again. Never was really in the red.

    Overall, I would give it 2.5 out of 5. (2 good, 2 bad 1 so-so) That is a huge improvement for Surf, because the year before he went 0 out of 3. So congrats!!!
  4. Pekelo


    Congrats, although we can only accept posted predictions. :)

    (not to mention, this thread isn't about P/L, there is another thread for that)
  5. Lucrum


    Why pray tell is a documented failed paper trader
    admitted pizza delivery guy
    who moonlights playing the ukelele in cheap hotel bars
    even posting this nonsense in the trading forum?