Prediction Based Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by stockpredictor, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. Yes
     
    #541     Apr 19, 2021
  2. Tsla rallied up to 715... STILL in the negative. Nonsense
     
    #542     Apr 19, 2021
  3. Amatrue

    Amatrue

    did you buy weeklies? shouldn't you be buying 0DTE?
     
    #543     Apr 19, 2021
  4. I make it a rule not to buy less than a week out except on Mondays. It could take a day for things to play out, although it is usually its a bounce... 0DTE has too many odds stacked against, eg it might take a couple of hours for the move and I'd be at a loss even if it went up. Also, TSLA does not have 0DTE available except on Fridays.
     
    #544     Apr 19, 2021
    Amatrue likes this.
  5. Mentioned it before, but worth repeating because it's such a great technique and it happened again today. At the places where reversals are expected on a set of stocks, you may find that multiple stocks will touch those levels at the same time. Stocks generally top/bottom at around the same time, even if by apparent co-incidence. This applies to smaller timeframes as well. Think about the logic. Stock X is expected to reverse at price Y, and Stock A at price B. However, they have disparate technical patterns. Yet, the general market correlation allows for the possibility of non-random, discernible movement when price approaches an area of interest. Multiple areas of interest generated simultaneously via different technical methods in correlated markets allow for more so-called coincidences.
     
    #545     Apr 22, 2021
    userque and Dna7272 like this.
  6. vinc

    vinc

    ha ha :) that's ,well.. 'epic'? :)

    you are certainly fit for a fund manager position!
     
    #546     Apr 23, 2021
  7. Lost most of the gains made since moving back into options. Wasn't used to the platform and messed up, and was unaware of some restrictions on the account, which made me get into only the long side of a non-directional trade, and other losses.

    Shorted BA at 242.5 slightly after market open today with biweeklys. Theta and stuff ate the gains. Closed at 241.5 at breakeven. Love-hate relationship with this stuff.
    EDIT: Oh, and I didn't take today's GE short on the HoD at just under 14... I was already short BA so I didn't want additional short market exposure. It went down hard. I'm fairly confident BA goes down tomorrow but just wanted to mentally reset after that frustrating stuff.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
    #547     Apr 26, 2021
  8. [​IMG]
    BA's high today is right where I had my entry yesterday... this is what I mean by event types. I was waiting the whole day for it to drop but it didn't, and then the next day it does what I expected... wanted to re-enter but I got into another trade instead and didn't have time to execute the trade. Same for AMD but missed it, we can see the event might this or that but it makes money regardless.
     
    #548     Apr 27, 2021
  9. 573 bought a ton of NVDA
     
    #549     May 4, 2021
  10. Closed 590
     
    #550     May 5, 2021