Prediction Based Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by stockpredictor, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. Checked and saw I missed another good trade that would have had 0 drawdown. Should have been +4% day...

    The Grid function on C2 allows one to search for specific parameters. There are a few good traders that haven't shown up in the leaderboards due to being too new or some such thing. There are some that have greater WR than me, some that have greater % return for time adjusted performance, but I seem to have better risk-adjusted returns. The three losses shouldn't have been losses according to the system, but I don't care because I don't like trades to run off too much. It typically catches short term extremes with little to no drawdown so those make up for the ones that run away. I don't care if they become losses or get back later. High WR attracts internal hubris, for me personally at least. Trading with stock rather than options has gotten me a lot more comfortable in taking losses. I think this is why I have relatively lower drawdowns; I was forced to improve timing when trading short term options so trading with stock makes it easier.

    There are tons of trades that would work out even with tight stops that have positive reward expectancy, and in order to capture them, it becomes a matter of difference between Best vs good vs worse. The Medallion fund supposedly has a winrate of something like a little over 50%. That is, their edges are marginal. Why are they so profitable? Because there are so many edges and strategies they use in conjunction with one another. I would have to program some technical correlation-divergence models with certain types of probability distributions to take advantage of these kinds of scenarios. It'd be in the future because its a lot of work and I don't know any of that- but it seems like it should work.
     
    #481     Mar 15, 2021
  2. userque

    userque

    Imagine where you'd be if you had started when I first suggested it.

    Learn the platform, it's your job now.

    After you bank a little, look to diversify your income. You'll have enough to open a larger brokerage account with a C2-compatible broker, where you won't have to enter your trades manually into C2 anymore.

    I'll send you a bill when you get on your feet.
     
    #482     Mar 15, 2021
    stockpredictor likes this.
  3. Yeah it would have been better

    If my friend closes his trades and lets me trade for him, I won't need more of a track record. But keeping all options open for now and building up the thing. Apparently, C2 takes time for the newer traders to shop up on the leaderboard because otherwise, any penny stocker could get to the top quick with a moonshot.

    Some people subscribe to themselves and just trade through C2 into a compatible broker.

    Bill for programming the strategy you mean?
     
    #483     Mar 15, 2021
  4. userque

    userque

    Yes, it'll take a little time.

    Bill for being your life coach.

    Coding your strategy into NinjaTrader would be another matter...get on your feet first. :)
     
    #484     Mar 15, 2021
    stockpredictor likes this.
  5. If I can get 5%/week avg, it'll be well over 1000% in a year

    You know I don't act like that in reality; on the other forum in linked, I'm quite mature and proactive. Some things I say here are blatantly for reaction. However, let me know your credentials & office; I'll fly for a therapy session xD

    Getting on my feet first would take time...not all about money. I get sick a lot. But if I can just get a big chunk to trade with, retirement can come this very year. If any rich guy looking to get a lot richer is reading this, message me and we can make a deal.
     
    #485     Mar 15, 2021
  6. userque

    userque

    Understood.

    I know. Some people are pretty good at detecting bullshit. They just may not let you know. Even so, we can look past it, to the real issues, and offer advice. We all were your age once.

    Get into Texas No-Limit when you get regular entertainment funds coming in. You'll better understand about reading people, and not revealing that you have a read on them.
     
    #486     Mar 15, 2021
    stockpredictor likes this.
  7. I used to work in a shop with my father and there were some cheat customers. I used to be good at reading people but it's been a while since then; linear regression has occurred
     
    #487     Mar 15, 2021
    userque likes this.
  8. Missed about 2-3% of gains today... Hopefully I'll get better soon. Slept the whole day except an early morning trade.
     
    #488     Mar 17, 2021
  9. First losing day. Small loss. Bothers me that I was second guessing myself, not the loss itself. Closed the short right off the high :/ Still up on the week though.
    [​IMG]
     
    #489     Mar 17, 2021
    userque likes this.
  10. Most recent metrics as well:
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    #490     Mar 17, 2021
    Amatrue and userque like this.