Prediction Based Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by stockpredictor, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. [​IMG]

    A few things to share. On the BIDU trade, I bought a little more at end of the day to average down. The reason is because of the 'market flip' property, or as I call it, the 'anchor'. My initial entry yesterday at 134.83 was almost today's high and open. Because the market had fallen further than I expected on that day, I anticipated that there was a possibility of the level having flipped from what I perceived as support, into resistance. The market often lets me get out of a bad trade at breakeven relatively swiftly, though not necessarily at profit (This was actually a conviction trade, as I was sure it would go up- but that didn't happen!). So by adding a bit more at a better price, I can avoid problems with slippage, theta, etc and get out at a small profit or breakeven. In this case, the difference in movement from the entry and End of Day price was enough to make a pretty decent profit. Keep in mind, there is a time stop too, so had that not occurred today, I would probably have closed the whole thing out regardless. That's the problem with making additions to calls- if I said I averaged down, it would introduce position size ambiguity and net average price. Another thing, we can see that price stayed at/above the original entry price for 20 mins from open, so although it was a couple of mins strayed from real time, it can be counted as acceptable.

    I had actually made a pretty bad trade (not mentioned) which I realized for a 7% loss on the account. I wonder if it was because of the BIDU drawdown which made me take it to 'get back'. Along with the BIDU drawdown, it amounted to over 15% drawdown on the account. Luckily, BIDU today made up for most of it, and the BA trade pulled me into a net profit. There were a couple of other trades that would have worked out, but I didn't take them. When things aren't going my way, its best to take a breath and a step back, reassess, and continue.

    Maybe I'll keep posting calls. It helps me think more logically. Truth be told, my public record is probably better than my 'usual' trading, even though trade rate is different. Willing to forego the small stuff to focus only on the better ones is important for the future too, because of liquidity constraints- this is why many traders cannot scale. Luckily, this strategy seems to catch the big moves at times. I want to start trading in that manner, and perhaps add everything I have into a single account. It's really tough though, because a small account can get away with a decent profit like with today's BIDU trade, but a big account may have had to struggle just for breakeven. We'll see.

    Chart as attached
     
    #211     Nov 24, 2020
  2. How about now?
     
    #212     Nov 24, 2020
  3. Just wanted to remind you of 22 consecutive live call trades with only 2 losses. LOSER!
     
    #213     Nov 24, 2020
  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    so lets just say i call all the dow, naz and sp stocks to go up and eventually when they do i will record those as winners and tout my success here. there i just out did you at your own game twerp.
     
    #214     Nov 24, 2020
    rb7 likes this.
  5. Do it, then.
     
    #215     Nov 24, 2020
  6. 86.90 short FSLY
     
    #216     Nov 30, 2020
  7. Closed here at 84.98
     
    #217     Nov 30, 2020
    shuraver likes this.
  8. [​IMG]
    Chart as shown
     
    #218     Nov 30, 2020
  9. Anyone know how to make the images smaller? I had zoomed out and then took a screenshot of the spreadsheet, but it seems that the website sizes it up? I don't want to keep scrolling in order to look at the whole image; at-a-glance would be preferable.
     
    #219     Nov 30, 2020
  10. Long QQQ here at 294.93
     
    #220     Nov 30, 2020