Prediction Based Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by stockpredictor, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. Close SPY here at 343.50. I'll update the table in a bit
     
    #111     Oct 20, 2020
  2. See chart as attached.
     
    #112     Oct 20, 2020
    userque likes this.
  3. Short TWTR at 49.95 right here
     
    #113     Oct 21, 2020
  4. Long BABA 310.00 here
     
    #114     Oct 21, 2020
  5. Still holding both, gave up half the week's gains so far though. Simply the cost of trading with high leverage...
     
    #115     Oct 21, 2020
  6. Closed BABA at 307.40 for a L.
     
    #116     Oct 22, 2020
  7. Table as shown
     
    #117     Oct 22, 2020
    userque likes this.
  8. Closed TWTR short here at 48.65
     
    #118     Oct 22, 2020
  9. Table as attached.
     
    #119     Oct 22, 2020
    userque likes this.
  10. Hindsight analysis: Should have closed BABA on open for profit, but didn't get the chance; I would have been OK with breakeven, considering yesterday's correlation with the market, which I was neutral to bearish on in the short term.
    TWTR should (probably) have been held into close; it usually surpasses the minor exit targets; the target was too conservative. Although TWTR did move more than BABA and appears as showing greater profit in the results table, I still took a L overall because I was more levered in BABA due to my getting shorter expiries (I did not want to buy the expensive ones that expired after earnings and mismanaged the size) and that double edged sword cut me. However, TWTR made up for a fair bit, and I am only down ~2%. Again, all trades will be ones of regret. Remember George Soros:
    “It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
     
    #120     Oct 22, 2020