Very interestingly enough, several studies that have "zero intelligence" traders have shown to exhibit the same bubble forming patterns as the internet bubble,real estate bubble, tulip bubble, etc
For certain methods this is a must. But honestly, as good as the idea sounds, I could never think of the market in probabilities like in poker or blackjack in the way I trade -- either I am flat out right or wrong, like fitting together the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. Fortunately, if I've read the market right, there's only 2 ways the pieces could go together, and flipping them around the other way is a matter of a single keystroke.
BINGO Great thread! If you never understood how we ever got those 95% of the market participants to provide for the liquidity and the profits of the nimble. Here it is.
Ah, you asked THE QUESTION. There is no such thing as 100% reliability in any field that I know, so I would say that for me, and acceptable outcome would be a tolerance of error of +/- 1 percent. This tolerance is achieved in the engineering and medical fields, so that would be acceptable to me as being indicative of predicability. This is just an excercise of course, if you know of such an outcome you would be quite insane to give it to me
Nononsense, since you have been around these parts for a bit, would you like to chime in? This thread will surely be referenced in the future.
=========== Thats fine you dont see any trends; & as a precise use of the word, sure as shooting its not about prediction, but probabilities. And you may want to do exaxtly as N. Nickolas Talib; options & t bills. And to repeat a sentence; thats fine you see no trends