Predicting markets - impossible

torontoman

I make money and my 'predictions' are wrong the majority of the time... go figure

Candle

 

So you probably have a lousy cristal ball and are a very good gambler.

 

Or maybe I simply manage my losing and winning positions effectively

 

I am taking a shot here but I think he is refering to Disposition effect. Ie individuals are more loss/risk averse when facing positive outcomes and risk seeking when facing negative outcomes. The explanations for this are limited: status que bias, decision regret therios etc.

If you want to test this out ask a non-trading friend what would he rather choose a $10 dollar loss or a gamble with 65-35 odds that you loose $20 or loose $5. My "bet" is he will chose the gamble. An experienced trader should (fill in the blanks) (of course this is simplistic).

Swiftmike

 

Predicting the market's direction is, no doubt, possible. However, making money off such predictions requires solid money management skills.

 

I've always found myself to be bad predicting things (baseball, weather or my wife's mood). So the best thing I can do is to believe in my trading system and follow it. Most of the best trades I've made where those in which I was bearish against it.

Not even Tom Cruise can predict the Financial Markets, there are so many things involved that it is impossible to make consistent good predictions.

 

The better the predictions, the lesser the importance of good money management.

 

Couldn't 'uv said it better myself.