I hope I'm wrong, but I have paper traded hundreds of systems in the past years. My conclusion is that it is imposiible to consistently make over 15% per year trading. I have tried everything: MACD, RSI Slow stochastics etc. combinations etc. I have put a lot of work in this. CONCLUSION: It's impossible to make over 15% per year. Do you know anyone that does? I don't. Most of the people I know that trades for a living ALWAYS lose or close to breakven. Am I wrong? Please tell me I'm wrong. Do you know anyone that does well?
I find I do better "reacting" instead of predicting. But I don't daytrade. Anyone else agree? As a side note, the most successful trader I know doesn't predict and he strongly emphasizes no one can predict the markets. Then again he is a mm at the CBOE for DarkStar trading.
Hook up with a boutique if you have the capital. Let them trade your account on a discretionary basis. You will net about 60% a year, year in year out. In your case just listen and agree; don't tell them anything you know or believe; just let them build your account.
Have you read: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=43388 Seems there are some people trading the OO strategy and doing well at it. Don't know their annualized return but I'll bet it's well over the hurdle rate you claim is not attainable. I am running an account this year to test a family of strategies and it is up well over the "unattainable" 15%. To see one of the strategies, look at my posts in this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=44092 DS
Let's face it. Even the big traders lose eventually. The winners got lucky in one trade, then eventually traded more conservatively. We've all read Market Wizards. The smartes traders I know actually quit at breakeven or a bit better, then invested in blue chip. I hope someone can tell me I'm wrong.