Predicting markets - impossible

Discussion in 'Trading' started by torontoman, Jul 24, 2005.

  1. I hope I'm wrong, but I have paper traded hundreds of systems in the past years. My conclusion is that it is imposiible to consistently make over 15% per year trading.

    I have tried everything: MACD, RSI Slow stochastics etc. combinations etc. I have put a lot of work in this.

    CONCLUSION: It's impossible to make over 15% per year. Do you know anyone that does? I don't. Most of the people I know that trades for a living ALWAYS lose or close to breakven.

    Am I wrong? Please tell me I'm wrong. Do you know anyone that does well?
  3. VictorS


    I find I do better "reacting" instead of predicting. But I don't daytrade. Anyone else agree?

    As a side note, the most successful trader I know doesn't predict and he strongly emphasizes no one can predict the markets. Then again he is a mm at the CBOE for DarkStar trading.

  4. Hook up with a boutique if you have the capital.

    Let them trade your account on a discretionary basis.

    You will net about 60% a year, year in year out.

    In your case just listen and agree; don't tell them anything you know or believe; just let them build your account.
  5. VictorS


    Coincidentally, Torontoman, I almost started this same thread.
  6. lol. You definately won't have any luck with old TA methods like that.

  7. Let's face it. Even the big traders lose eventually. The winners got lucky in one trade, then eventually traded more conservatively. We've all read Market Wizards. The smartes traders I know actually quit at breakeven or a bit better, then invested in blue chip.

    I hope someone can tell me I'm wrong.
  8. How long have you been trading?

  9. On and off for 15 years. I mostly paper trade. My actual trades are conservative blue chips.
    #10     Jul 24, 2005