Ive read almost all of Seykota's Q&A (he is so generous doing that for free) and read almost all of Jack's posts, and done the conventional approach. I agree with all you wrote above.
Jack - that is FRAME-ABLE! What an effort. Thanks for teaching us. People say you are scamming them? How weird? You have never asked me for money! Yet I learn from you every day. You are teaching what you know, to those who have ears. Thanks.
Many prices are not financial. It will be interesting to see how you and PointOne feel about all this in a couple of years if you are still trading (real money). Feel free to remind me in 2009.
A person who is in the market all the time, switching from long to short to long to short, based on whats going on NOW is still predicting. Lets say you are currently long, and something occurs which makes you sell and immediately go short to always be in the market. Why did you switch??? Because you are PREDICTING that this decision will end up making you money based on what you just saw that made you switch. Its still predicting. Any time you put on a trade, for whatever reason, you are PREDICTING that by doing this you will make a future profit (or you are simply a moron and are randomly gambling)
"Its still predicting. Any time you put on a trade, for whatever reason, you are PREDICTING that by doing this you will make a future profit (or you are simply a moron and are randomly gambling)" More correctly predicting that by repeatedly doing this you will make a future profit. But your point is 100% correct and has a 100% chance that some will not understand it. ___________________________ The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief. That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing. So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.
This thread is sounding like whether Technical analysis works or not. It's a simple liguistic difference. Let's say I give 3 people the same trading system. I don't care whether or not they make money. I ask them what they think of of the system and they tell me the following: "I predict that this system is good" "I expect that this system is good" "I tested that this system is good" All 3 are based on different processes of conclusion but the future result will be the same. Talking about predicting, in itself is irrelevent. Hrmm.... I don't think people will get what I'm saying but go on with wasting time.
Maybe the trader has identified a trade set up based on his methodology IN THE NOW and therefore takes it (goes short). To not take it , would be to call himself a liar. So the trader takes the set up in the moment. The future will take care of itself. He is not short because he thinks price will fall. He is short because his previous work has led him to a point where he says," IF x happens, then I will go with it (be short)". The predicting, was done prior to the point where the trader decided this was a valid short trade set up. But once the trader takes this set up to the live market he is no longer predicting, merely allowing his edge to show itself.
The path is smooth, why do you throw rocks in front of you? Yes as traders we do predict. We use prediction when we back test, when we ferret out certain patterns we think we see on a chart, we do look for certain outcomes based on specific inputs. BUT WHEN IT IS TIME TO TRADE, WE MUST BE IN THE MOMENT. All we have is the here and the now. We enter long because we have confidence in our set -up, without regard to the outcome. We do not value ourselves on our ability to be right. We focus on consistency. We take our set ups as the come because we believe in the probabilities that we have structured. We can not trade the future; it is unknown. We can not trade the past, although we all wish we could. We are reduced to trading in the moment. We focus on another "p": the Process. And let the future take care of itself.