Just to keep it simple and brief. I am looking at a log. The log has columns on it. I go down the log annotating in time. The row I am filling in is the one that is in the present and has a time jotted at the left. The time is fairly close to what a box is showing with the time and the bar number for a 5 minute bar that is presently forming. Above, on the log are past annotations. I only fill in the annotations related to the present. And what I fill in on the left half of the chart is the data set I am obtaining from a visual sweep of the CRT display screens in an arc of 90 degrees where five screens are on display and not including a TV which is not in the arc. The next column has room for a gross conclusion I get from the data set. For the sake of clarity one of two fillins is used. In longhand all spelled out they would be either "continue" or "change". Skip going to the dictionary for a moment to find out what they mean. Let me tell you why I wrote them and how they can be used. Continue means I am continuing to make money and that is the present staus of what the market is flowing to me. This is to say, in a word, all of my contracts are making money and the number of contracts is okay to have making money. When I fill in the left side of the log as a data set from sensing screens I am emotional simply because I am doing a sensory thing and the fact is that all sensory processes have emotions associated with them. The three that are in my space are: support, comfort and confidence. This goes on all day long, practically speaking. I write an H in a column labelled action after I annotate the MODE column which is to the right of the data set. MODE is the column for the symbols for continuation and change. I do 20 to 40 entries of "change" in the MODE column a day. At each of these times, it turns out that above this row on the log and in various data set cells there are anotations of signals that have helped me get to the "change" symbol I have written into the MODE column. For me, as I operate in NOW making a conclusion of "change" as the MODE for the row in NOW, all of the near past sequences have led to the present and my filling in the present row. Relatively speaking, there are many annotations that have occurred in an order and they led up to "change" in the time called NOW. I do not, as I fill in a row, think in terms of predicting. The rows ahead in the log is where things would be written to predict. But lets look at the past and see if anything was written somewhere that could look like a prediction for this row that is NOW. All I find are signals that occurred on various rows which are different time rows. You are perfectly well allowed to call those signals anything you want. Use your definitions above to help you come up with names that are choosable. You can rename them any time you want as well. Go for it. What I am saying is that the market is sequential in nature and, therefore it allows me to see that I will be writing continue and change at different times as time passes. I do it to make money. Either I am continuing to make money or I am at a change moment. A change moment is defined in my dictionary. It is defined as a momnet in the present where I take an action with regard to my participation in the market. I act. I change sides of the market. There are consequences and I do it in a way that is most effective and efficient. Here is and example. I am holding 750 contracts of ES. I see T&S is running at 400 to 500 contract blocks and below. So I act in three moments about 15 to 20 seconds apart. 500, 500 and 500. I take 250 contracts of profits three times and I reverse in three partial moves and all of this is done at the same value of the market. At other times I would do things differently if T&S was telling me something else. This was a 40 second event overall. if I had held for 10 or 20 minutes of the market's operation to do the 40 to 20 actions a day that I do, you can see the privce change over that period in my favor allows a segment of profits to be banked. I am just being told by a data set to write change. When I write change I then act and fill in the other column with R instead of H, where R means reverse. To the right on the log where each R appears there is some housekeeping done. It is shorthand stuff about contracts and a note of price. It is where I find out what happened to some extent. Quicky notations that do not involve more than what happened to a market order(s). What I mostly see are sequences unfolding. each step of each element in the data set element columns reads down vertically and a sequence is unfolding. It is like troops advancing in columns and I am looking at the front. I fill in NOW and the MODE is concluded. Change appears in MODE as a conclusion in NOW and I ACT to do R. You can tell me what dictionary words are important and which parts of the word definition is at play for you. Cool. My arrangement with the market is to be able to see it and to do what it tells me to do. It tells me in the present only and that is what I look at only. NOW is where trading takes place and ACTing takes place in the present as well. The results are "unbelievable" and "anstonishing" according to the people who haven't been looking at the logs or prints. Others who are doing their logs in a similar way get similar results. Have some good gauchoing. Do you ever drop the dictionary are you ride along?
Did you not read the part that said the CREDIT MARKET? That is like options pricing! Do you trade CREDIT? Do you price CREDIT? All those tools are not compatible with the doc you posted and thankfully, not needed. So you don't trade credit but if you did, then you would have not made your comment! Mon ami, the credit trading arena is where I have to use time series analysis and stochastic everything. When you don't use it, you can't get a price. When you looked at LEND, prices were being quoted all over your DOM/LevelII. Your program did not have to figure out what was the fair value price of LEND. It just quotes what someone is asking for and offereing. When credit goes to the market, a structure is sent out and someone on the other side of the transaction has to come back with what they think is a fair price and to what calculated to be a fair bid. To find that fair bid/ask price, you have to use all types of math/quant stuff to figure out what is that fair price. This is why I can talk at length about both spectrums, the NOW vs stat/random/expectation and even where there is room for overlap. Such credit transactions are several hundred million dollars at a clip so we make sure that our analysis takes us to the bank each and everytime... That is how the credit market works, unlike the equities/futures market. SO if two people who know how to backtest, and use the same code, and one gets a result that is opposite the other, do you have NO interest in trying to figure out why the other person got the result that you desired??? Doesn't seam to make much sense! Or it does it? As long as you bang out bucks, that is what it is all about. There is a multitude of ways to bang out bucks. If you don't agree with how someone else bangs out their bucks, that does not make it any less real. According to the latest polls, it shows that there are more than just a trite few banging out bucks. Is it an extraordinary popular delusion of ET that for every 2 people that have read the doc and failed to bank, there is 1 person who has read and banked???
Hey, Jack my man! I showed you my brilliant 1 contract non-SCT trade yesterday to back up my arrogant braggadocio. How's about you do the same and show me an execution report that builds up to a 750 car ES position? C'mon! Humiliate me!
the rest is fruit of the poisoned tree........and maybe superfluous.......fairly close to is neither exact, enacted or present.........presently forming is not yet formed, not in the present, not known.........any preponderence to future outcomes (in the next time frame, moment, second, nano-second) is based on or probabalistic......not now and not known. your right.......let's keep this simple....... thanks for the legthy reply, I appreciate that much effort is placed into your work. Joules
Traders have to deal with the pragmatic detail that a 5 minute bars forms over five minutes. Within bars there are the details presented by all the different displays of a variety of fineness. The one tick range charts have a little coded box that shows the residence time, for instance. The clock simply restarts as a new tick Bbid/BAsk is in effect. That is one of the elegant beauties of trading. Musicians are literally intoxicated by the beauty of music forming into such splendor the same way. I with the markets had scales and a range of notes with assigned period according to the meter specified on the scores. The PVT and SCT annotation system go a long way towards the creation of the scene, that is for sure. You may want to examine all the repsonses to my posts that show the person isn't even giving himself a chance to see the markets.
You can tell that Jack and I are both "of an age" because we both admire and emulate the Thirties poet Ogden Nash. Note how both our styles ring of Nash: "Twas brillig and the slithy toves did gyre and gymbal on the wave."
does CNBC know about JH 750 es contract trade?? is that why he going to be on the show? is JH the heir to the hershey fortune?
Yes I did read the part where you said the CREDIT MARKET and of course I was being sarcastic about applying the Hershey method. But don't tell me: "I regularly run my stochastic models for Interest Rate risk (vasicek), Bond Recovery Rates, and Credit Spread Premiums (GARCH(1,1))" and then say you're not forecasting / predicting anything. On our backtests differing, there's no way you'll get a positive result by testing only what's in Jack's "Tomorrow's Paper Today" document, which is what I tested. Are you saying you introduced no ADDITIONAL conditions?