Mak that was so good I quote it in full. We make decisions in the NOW which lead to profitable actions. Some say this is prediction - well indeed profits may be anticipated but the decisions are based on what has just happened and is happening to our vectors within the 5 minutes of NOW under consideration. 5 minutes is an efficient timeframe for monitoring but it is of course arbitrary. It is amusing how the argument gets twisted from prediction (of what price will do next) to prediction that your method will be profitable. It is inconceivable to some that you can KNOW what is happening and can differentiate between continuation and change. No doubt that makes me a wanker according to kiwi and others who prefer to insult rather than debate a very interesting topic. (kiwi is a misnomer - (s)he behaves more like a prickly pear. Now on Ignore after my civil attempt by PM to work out where the hostility comes from, joining whatever the opposite of an illustrious group is called.)
One wanker (who takes him/herself too seriously) remains. All debate was done in the first 10 pages - now we are just down to the fight as no opinions have changed. No twisting required unless its your twisting in the wind. The only twisting is arguing about coins ... we're trading not tossing coins. Don't you guys ever get it? (LOL, obvious answer not required). __________________________ The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief. That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing. So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.
And FWIW, Jack does know and all newbies should follow him. Please try your ideas out trading the HSI ... its very amenable to traders who know.
This just proves your ingorance and incompetence. Sometimes they most certainly ARE random, for the simple reason that there can be so many buys and sells at varying volumes for varying reasons (from a mutual fund buying shares to Joe Smith cashing out for his daughter's college tuition, to all the day traders who are buying and selling for different reasons in different timeframes, etc.). If you knew anything about serial dependency you wouldn't make such foolish statements.
ROTFLMAO!!! I have admitted to no such thing, Mr. Propaganda Minister! When I tested "rockets" and buying the 0 to 7 turn of the "P,V Boolean relation," I was testing descriptions that JACK HIMSELF provided and which were uncharacteristically crystal clear. But when the test results showed those are nothing more than gold plated turds, you and Jack's other boot-licking lackeys jumped in with the propaganda, claiming that things were left out (which were NOT part of the patterns Jack had described at the time). Anyone can verify this by searching my posts. You guys are pathetic. P.S. This is one of the primary reasons why Jack is the wise old man who speaks in riddles... he knows his stuff can't withstand backtesting so he seeks to obscure it... but sometimes trips up and puts out something that can be easily tested.
On the contrary Mr. Propaganda Minister: 1) The tests were done based on Jack's document (which I've posted several times already) and with Spyder's code from the Wealthlab site. After I posted the equity curve, you and Jack's other sycophants tried adding in conditions AFTER THE FACT that Jack had NOT listed in "Catch Up with Tomorrowâs Paper Today." 2) You didn't address the reason for my original post and instead, tried to sidestep the issue with a phoney attack on my backtests. The point I was making was your statement about not predicting directly contradicts Jack's document, Catch Up with Tomorrowâs Paper Today... Technical Analysis Used in a Manner to Anticipate the Market. 3) The poll results prove nothing and are almost certainly as inflated as claims of 3X daily range and 4% to 7% per day.
Wow, Jack, your claims are get more and more bizarre... here's my prediction: that one day we'll find out you're no longer posting because of advanced dementia. I truly hope I'm wrong (despite my thoughts on your methods) but from reading your recent posts, that's where I see this heading.
So here AGAIN is where your logic falls apart. You see the market as random. You back off of your statement a bit by saying SOMETIMES. By sometimes, do you mean it is random 50% of the time and not random the other 50% of the time??? The execution of trades are in fact RANDOM. This is the timing of WHEN trades hit the market (ie. mutual funds, Joe Smith, day traders, etc...). In other words, executions are done RANDOMLY. However, the effect of those executions are not random. So what time series components (ie. P, ticks, V, others) did you do your analysis on? For it to be random, you would have had to assesesed that the time series was "horizontally stable". Right??? Perhaps this is why you state sometimes as in sometimes (ie. 50%) of the time you assessed the time series to be "horizontally stable". The point is those random entry of trades hitting the market do not randomly do things. They either hit the bidsize or hit the asksize and then appear on your T&S as a record. AGAIN, I see all that you talk about and the effects of those inputs as having very non random results. I threw up this chart many moons ago of how what you don't see works (ie. randomly entered trades producing NON RANDOM changes in PRICE). Maybe you missed this material which was buried in the 2000 or so pages of posts... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1060940> So in this chart you see P at your finite resolution BID/ASK pair change by BID/ASK pair change and tick. There is an even finer resolution that is BSIZE/ASIZE that fluctuates between ticks but you probably do not use that dataset. So here, mon ami, is where we get to looking at the road in front of you. There are two series of bars in the chart. The top series of bars, is the BID and ASK. You make or lose money when the pair move, although there is a way to make money when the pair do not move but perhaps you have already figured that out. So when the BID/ASK pair change, there are precursors. Those precursors appear on the bars you see plotted BELOW the BID/ASK bars. For the ENTIRE blue region, the DOM has not changed. So all the while while you are looking at P which in my world is the BID/ASK bars, I am looking at the bars below the BID/ASK pair. This BLUE ZONE is very special as you can see something has shifted within the BID/ASK pair that is a result of all those randomly arriving trades. What is next on this chart is imminent! NOTE VERY WELL how I am not looking at P to see where P is heading. This is the whole looking out in front of the car to see when the car should be turning. But how would you have known that just looking at P??? Mon ami, so the bottom line in this whole long winded thread is that if you choose to look at the markets randomly, then by default you have to resort to probabilities. Some see the market as a very orderly (ie. non-random) place. If you choose to look at the market as a random array of inputs and outputs, then you are in the van thorpe world. However, this is by your choice. The above picture, sees how the randomly executed (in realtime) trades hit the market. Long before the BID/ASK pair changes, you have had precursors that what is about to happen is not random. JUST LOOK at the region before the circled BLUE region. It happened there too... the movement of price being related to the previous changing non price conditions of the previous moment...
So why is your virtual money of rockets different then Easyrider's real money of rockets??? Clearly, your backtests were missing something mon ami...