Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by aeliodon, Mar 5, 2007.

  1. Sure , why not . Problem with NOW is that when price will start trending you are getting serial NOW in the wrong direction( see Stoch and MACD behavior in trending market ).
    I suspect that people without ability to forecast would like( deep down ) to know how to do it but for some reason are trying to argue against it. I don't get it. Wouldn't that be awesome if they would know when the next reversal will come ?
    Nothing personal, just my opinion.
    Peace.
     
    #181     Mar 13, 2007
  2. MAK, about your penmanship drill... you've taken this waaaaaay off topic! Here's my recap. I was originally responding to KPCURRENCY because he wrote something to the effect that he could use only the present ("NOW") to determine if the market's rising. I said that was not possible because, at greatest resolution, markets are composed of ticks. Therefore, he had to refer to one or more PAST ticks to determine the change if any. My reasoning being, one cannot take the derivative at NOW and tell by the slope at one point because ticks are discontinuous. You chimed in with the one period SMA and then the "U" stuff, to which I replied that a one period SMA is just connectiong the ticks (dots) and is still not differentiable at the data points because each point is a vertex.

    Bottom line: Trading ***IS*** predicting / anticipating / forecasting / concluding / betting / speculating / wagering / expecting that the market WILL do something based on where it is now AND what it has done in the past.

    Of course, in candyland this may not apply because contradictions are the norm. I'll close with a quote from the Grand Poobah of contradiction, Mr. Strunk and White himself:
     
    #182     Mar 13, 2007
  3. I was having this little debate with a prediction non-believer on this thread and he's disappeared. Along with all of his posts.

    So which of our regular halfwit posters was he?


     
    #183     Mar 13, 2007
  4. What kind of blasphemy do you say? Jack can! Catch Up with Tomorrow’s Paper Today... Technical Analysis Used in a Manner to Anticipate the Market! (Attached)
     
    #184     Mar 14, 2007
  5. mg_mg

    mg_mg

    Probability is a way of prediction.
     
    #185     Mar 14, 2007
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    #186     Mar 14, 2007
  7. Moderators, this is clearly the moron alias known yesterday as swingnfade. He's just stirring again.

    Would you be kind enough to remove him and all his posts once again. Cheers :)
     
    #187     Mar 14, 2007
  8. taowave

    taowave

    Well said DB.....

    It seems to be the ongoing rage to take fairly simple concepts and add a zen buddist/taoist twist.Make no mistake about it,Mr Hershey is a marketing genius.If you notice,when he counters people he is quite funny,direct, and humorous.He makes his feelings very CLEAR...However,the moment he speaks trading,it may as well be in a different language.Why the sudden transformation???Because Jack knows full well that human beings tend to "seek the miraculous".







     
    #188     Mar 14, 2007
  9. Exactly! This is just his latest tack because it's what he currently believes will attract the most apple polishing toadies. Before it was the opposite (see my last post, Catch Up with Tomorrow’s Paper Today).
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1395980#post1395980
     
    #189     Mar 14, 2007

  10. yes, however, you must keep in mind that for this to work--vast pools of capital are needed. in addition, what's your probability based on-- a valid, testable concept or old wives tales?

    regards, surf
     
    #190     Mar 14, 2007