Even (leveraged) arbitrageurs are predicting that the spread will not blow out beyond their capacity to meet margin calls before delivery/settlement. Having any position on at all is an implicit prediction. So is being 100% in cash. Trading is all about prediction, and anticipating various potential outcomes. Saying "don't try to predict" is just psychobabble nonsense.
Opie, I would like to understand what you mean about my approach requiring the market to "show its hand". I presume you refer to the kinds of events I mentioned. If so, what are FTTs, BOs, FBOs, stochastic crossovers, etc. but events of the same kind? I, too, want to be always on the right side of the market and ride it. All I am saying is that many of your events correspond to classical TA events and have alternate, perhaps more insightful, interpretations. Not knocking your journey, just suggesting that you take two guidebooks for the trip.
I know you mean well Hypo. Thanks. Let's put it this way. Imagine you already have a position open from a larger time frame and a smaller time frame shows you that a H&S formation is in the process of becoming. From the smaller time frame perspective one is looking to take a position if a BO occurs. From the SCT perspective (your larger time frame) you are only changing direction if the BO fails. If not, you are "already" in the market way before the H&S setup even becomes evident. I think there is a marked difference of perspective and of course opinion. Nothing wrong with having debate on this subject though.
Geez, more smoke, mirrors and diarrhea! Did you make your 3X daily range early in the day today? Are you saying that the one period SMA of a time series is anything but a line connecting each data point (connecting the dots)? Are you saying that such an SMA is differentiable at any of the data points? Glad you brought up time dilation. PERFECT! Because I could explain how its formula is derived, from scratch, to eighth graders in an hour or less. And at the end of that time, they'd be able calculate relative time passage for stationary vs moving observers. My point is that, if that's the case, why does it take years to transfer knowledge of the Hershey "method?" Answer: because it's a bunch or crap and it's all a game for a pied piper and his apologists who need to believe. Just like you throwing out a bunch of lofty names and concepts is a game with no substance behind it. Yeah, you use all that to trade, ROTFLMAO!!!!
Again, you calculate, what I see. The letter "U" has a point where the derivative is zero. As you can see, that letter's range is finite as is it's domain. Are you saying there is no point along the letter at which the derivative is zero??? If you can not interpret the calculus aspect of this letter as a function and see where the derivative is zero, who is at fault? The teacher who did not tell you that you can do that? Applying what you know, you can see where the derivative is zero. And are you certain every kid will "get" time dilation??? I sat in college classes where half the students couldn't grasp it and they were all engineers. Everyone knew how to use the forumla. However, most did not recognize WHEN and HOW to use it. This is the line in the sand between getting it and calculating. So your point about explaining to kids and getting it is precisely the difference. Alot of us explain alot, years its turning out. Some, like myself, "GOT IT". It is unfathomable as to all that is possible. It is a no turning back orientation. What is not a claim is that you DO NOT GET IT! Pages and pages, posts and posts, to get to the very point you make of not having had the knowledge transfer? Who's responsible for not having had the knowledge transfer? The difference is, I'm using it and you are not. That, mon ami, is not my responsibility. I, amongst others, am all the way to the bank. We encourage whoever to take whatever they can if anything all the way to the bank. Ultimately, you have done a SUPERB job of representing the other end of this endeavor. Some will succeed others simply cannot. The success rate has been quoted as being 1 in four or 5. There is some poll somewhere that says other wise. Just relax, and wait till the smoke clears, approximately 29 years 357 days to go...
This thread proves there are a large percentage of people who cant grasp the simplest of logic. Anyone who places a trade is PREDICTING the market will act in a way that will be profitable to them most of the time or they wouldnt place the trade. Everything else is spin. the end
You are correct I didn't do a good job "transfering" my perspective. I will try again. Traditional trader: Waiting for your much adored H&S setup with fork in one hand and knife on the other pacing patiently for the BO as his mouth waters expecting the moment. Me: I have been in the market making money around both shoulders and the head...just following price as indicated. Making money irrespective if the H&S holds water or not or even forms. There is just no comparison between the two scenarios.