Noting your comment NihabaAshi, I therefore set out a brief response for the earnest enquiry of Vedanta. Firstly Iâm not really interested in exchanging PMs and I donât always answer them. If I have any comment to make the BB is the open means and anyone else including myself can make their observations or not. For everyone, it is what you are attempting to do in the market or what you are not doing which is reflected in the posts you as ET members make .. aside from jesting mode and exchanges or statements of sentiment made by members including myself. Trading is also about clear aims do-able within what a market permits. Grobs proposal is to follow the daily gyrations using index futures (eg ES) from the open to the close buying the bottom of each downmove and selling the top of each upmove in a series of linked trades, in other words turning around at each bottom and each top. This is achieved through reading the market live using a mix of coarse, medium and fine criteria. Undoubtedly it is useful teaching. I have not read all his extensive writings posted at ET but the key ingredient in getting rich is weight or betting size. I donât know whether or not moving through ES with 10 lots is the still the standard for that methodology. It has natural limits on position size when part of the process entails trading when frequently move sizes or segments are not large. I donât sell the shop; thats a big difference. It is up to players to do their own problem solving and homework. I can tell you if you want to set up a predictive model you have to assemble all the data and it will take a lot of time and focus, stage by stage, to establish and understand all the parameters you will need. I know that a few members have bumped into odd bits of all the answers needed but you need first to establish all questions and work through them. New questions keep arising out of attempting to answer the questions you start out with but it is up to the aspirant player. What a predictive model can do is provide a template. A series of initial parameters take you to the appropriate and specific template for the day you trade. It gives you in advance the day range scale, BS or SB, and timings within the day (plus other derivative track direction as the day progresses). If you donât want to know any of that ..fine. For me I want to know the day in advance and it is an institutional approach to treat the market as place to take out money. The general backdrop is that everyone arrives at this point in time along the ruts and grooves that make up their knowledge and experience to date. Its easy for anyone to be locked down hard, encased in what they believe is the answer or to reside in a perspective where they believe the only answers lie or to be where they already think they have got the best answers in their view. If your mind is open what experience is it based on? It may well not be enough. If you have long experience, is you mind open enough? It may well be a tired and cluttered wallboard averse to any longer being open enough. With a predictive model, you do not need chart analysis. I do of course use a visual live chart as I monitor the price throughout the day. Can you use chart analysis as well? Of course you can. I developed a suite of indicators on range bar and volume bar charts and the subject remains interesting. Indicators are perceptions of price behavior which can mislead as well as lead you correctly in your trading. Even with indicators it seems many players do not do the necessary testing, study, repetitive assessment or establish accurate and related readings which only then can be used for smart play to continuously exploit the market they trade in. But remember I choose to know in advance the day ahead.
=================== Wouldnt call it a prediction; but leaders do lead. Sounds like you applied the rule of 72 also or related; work about 72 hours a week, fun yes, work yes, even if it is fun.
yes murray t turtle much and very long hard effort...........is porgie slow learner? no doubt..........does porgie have a system that is almost perfect..........yes..........does porgie have many more that are close to almost perfect......yes........does porgie know that he is very unimportant to system high percentage signals.........yes since creation of system is complete porgie knows he is now just a bystander...........100% mechanical system.........porgie created but not as good at trading as the average beginner..........too much system creation............boggled the mind........poor trader......now working on psychology........system works realtime every day. .......whipsaw range trend......no adjustments allowed.....no curve fitting........not for sale or gift.......had a very successful attorney yesterday say we need to talk about your trading business........i said no thanks...........i don't want his money in my account.......another wealthy and i mean very wealthy homebuilder relative continues to show interest in investing money in my account........the answer is no..........if u can trade t his stuff correctly account size has very little to do with it.....other than open account ............if u can't build from your own scratch then don't try to build with other people's money.......you will probably make enemies when u should be happily growing your own money
=============== Porgie & bro; 'Slow'' learner you say; actually my elder bro got mad @ me one time as a kid & SCREAMED, You !##%%**!!! turtle, get moving faster.'' ================================ Used to hate that critical childhood nickname''turtle'' until I read Rich Dennis & turtles interviews/ Jack Schwager books Wouldnt call it a YM prediction; but Volente noted several times 9-3;30 reversal[Chicago time] 1;15 to 1;30 [chicago time]reverses in many markets a high %%; however thats not a prediction, and it surely not 100% of time.
IMHO there are some traders that can predict price direction with some consistency but not consistent accuracy and this is what creates the problems. The greater the inconsistency of the predictions the more doubt is created when it comes time to pull the trigger on a trade. The doubt festers into the inability to pull the trigger on any trade because of shear percentages. If a traders knows he is going to "lose" a good portion of the time it doesn't matter how big the winners are, the doubt keeps him from consistently executing trades and he ends up missing some good ones. A trader with a strong mental constitution then has a better chance of survival and success because they weather the losing trades better. These are all things that play into trying to "Predict" price which individuals need to be aware of.
"Sharpening the ax will not delay the work of cutting the wood" - Chinese Proverb http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,18440148-5003425,00.html "...Waitzkin's love for the game of chess has always been underpinned by an awareness of how damaging it can be if taken to extremes. "I have worked with chess players in the past, and the most talented chess student I ever had . . . well, I begged his mother to make him quit," he says. "He wasn't psychologically built to handle what the chess world required. You need incredible resilience. You're constantly losing, no matter how good you are. Take Garry Kasparov. Losing is a huge part of Kasparov's life. You're constantly having to rebound from defeat. You never have a sense of solid footing because the ground is always shifting beneath you..." Sound familiar? Even more interesting from that article: ""My experience moving from chess to the martial arts was an experience of parallel learning," says Waitzkin. "When I was playing chess I felt like I was doing tai chi, and when I was doing tai chi I felt like I was doing chess. I felt like I was translating my level at chess over into tai chi, and my learning curve was quite rapid in martial arts. It was interesting because I was giving a 40-board chess exhibition at that time, and two hours into it I had the realisation that I was playing chess but thinking in the language of tai chi. The two arts merged in my being and in my mind. It was as if all the arts are connected by an essence." nitro
The answer to the author of this thread is YES!!! I used to have the same opinion as many of the posters here that Market Timing, especially Intraday was 50/50 at best. I've been Trading various things since the 70's and it's always been more like gambling. Since last Dec.18th to be precise, things have turned around in my Trading results. On that day I joined a service that does Intraday Market timing, nothing else. Hell, I was very skeptical at first, but they offered a free trial and the monthly fee is only 30 bucks, so I went ahead and gave a try. What really pushed me into signing up was that they archive every forecast they make so anyone, member or non member can review their entire record. They do a Morning forecast, and also a noon forecast. On their site they claim to have a historical accuracy rate of 70%, but since I've been with them to my math it's 82%. You can check out the site at www.closingtrend.com. My only relationship with them is as a very impressed and paying member of their service. ...Rennick out ps. to anyone who is going to post that I'm promoting or pumping a site for my own gain if I send people their way I say Balderdash, and I will pull down my shorts so you can kiss both sides of my a$$.
You sure remind me of someone Bill. I cant put my finger on it yet. I saw on your bio that you are a pastor. Must be an unusual church.