JMowery If you're still around maybe you have time to respond. Do you say you use moving averages (simple crossover setup) and support/resistance only (with trendlines/arcs)? -Stephen
Heee-heee-heee-hee......... its alive... IT'S ALIVE!!!! initial results are outstanding....... will be back on top of my game soon! Will post with all the details when my account hits a new high! P.S. .... thanks to William Rennick for pointing me to this grave yard which enabled me to accuire my needed "parts" for this frankenindicator!
I will save you a lot of time and frustration... There is absolutely no way to "predict" what the market is going to do... from the start of the day or throughout the day or whatever time frame you may be looking at.. The top traders in the world will tell you that they never *predict* but instead *react* to what the price is telling them. If you start looking and thinking about the markets and their movements in terms of probabilities you might be off to a good start...
Here we go again with the same old confusion about 'prediction'. (1) A smart speculator will always *react* as you maintain. He recognizes the present state of the market he wants to operate in, based on what 'price [history] is telling him; (2) From this knowledge, the speculator will ponder the possible future price move of the market. He will likely allow for several or even many possible future price trajectories and assign a likelihood to each of these, this depending on his insight. This process is in fact a description of what a mathematician would recognize as setting up a sample space and assigning a probability to each member. This is what is meant by *predict*. Your speculator, possibly never having heard about these mathematical matters, will in his mind 'weigh in' these different possible outcomes. For some speculators, this 'weighing in' may involve highly complex procedures. (3) The speculator will then use these probabilities, combine these with the payoffs to be expected and enter, yes or no into a position; (4) Regardless of the level of sophistication of your speculator, no guy would enter a position based on his current knowledge about the market - *react* as you prefer to call it - if he had a hunch, feeling or whatever, that his move was going to make him lose money: i.e. if he consciously or subconsciously would *predict* a loss. If you don't like *predict* call it *foresee* or anything you like. That's what PREDICTION is all about; (5) I doubt that any speculator in his right cotton pickin mind would behave differently unless he happens to be a really dumb myopic dart player. nononsense
When I use the term *react* the meaning is a trader, reacting to an already *known* price movement based on what is happening in the now, not on what may happen in the future. Also, the trader I am referring to takes on trading positions with no knowkledge that an event or crisis will occur. They take their positions as markets move. With price leading the way, they follow along. The fact that these particular small, initial price trends lead to big trends that lead to big events is not something anyone could predict..
You seem to fail grasping the meaning of prediction as commonly used in decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Nobody can ascertain that an event will occur - a mathematician would assign a probability of 1.0 to such a 'certain' event. That is why the probabilities for each possible outcome will hover between 0 and <1.0. The process of making money speculating is more subtile and involves prediction in the sense I exposed in my above post. No speculator can survive without it. In making his decisions in the presence of uncertainty, he is indeed 'PREDICTING', terminology used since decades for this kind of decision process. nononsense
this might help a lot.......substitute the word guess for the word predict.........all predict means is guess......a longer term trader has to be guessing or predicting.........just a matter of semantics........even scalping is guessing either by you or your computer ........or someone else, but still guessing unless u hav e a 100% system and u don't........mine is high but not perfect.....the guessing of one person is not as risky as same situation guessed by another or vice versa...simple..........experience and greater skills lessen the risk of the prediction or guess.......nobody knows what the market will do next....NOBODY....
============== Helpful points; and while there are profitable traders who mistakenly use the word ''predict', much more accurate to use the word probabilities, or forecast like the weather man forecasts. not predicts. Words do have meanings, few or none would use word predict if they looked it up as applied to the stock/derivative market; probabliities/forecast comes a lot closer to hitting the target Words are more precise than support/resistance.