Predicting intraday price movement

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by vedanta, Mar 2, 2006.

  1. vedanta


    I've read that it is possible to predict intraday price action, either from the start of the day or during the day, Cheese mentions this, but can someone explain how this is done ? Are there any resources like books, websites I can check out that might help me get started ? Experienced traders, is it possible to do this ? I'm interested also, because a friend claims the same thing, but it is impossible to verify his results

  2. LOL! Probably (albeit not with 100% accuracy), but who would tell you how. That's like giving away money.

    By the way, if you find a book that proports to tell you how, then it probably doesn't work. Why would someone publish a book that tells the secret code to an infinite ATM machine. If they think they can make more money by selling the strategy, then it probably isn't worth much.
  3. I wouldn't say predicting.

    For example, when I watch the YM, I have a good "feel" for where it will go next. I'd say I'm right anywhere from 60 - 80% of the time in "predicting" where it will go. But it is more of a case of just studying the price, seeing what happens before it makes moves and just knowing who is in control.

    It comes with experience. Now, predicting price movement, AND pulling the trigger is another thing.

    Executing is what I need to work on.
  4. ============
    Not really precisely predict, no ;
    but probable outcomes.

    Wrote some on ''YM thread today'':cool:
  5. You might try putting some channels on your charts.......they're a start.....
  6. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    many paid gurus claim they are able to do it but the strangest thing is seeing Gio's dog does it, he only barks at the top or occasionally at market acceleration point to the down side. :D
  7. Yes I know how. But why should I tell you?
  8. vedanta


    You don't have to tell me exactly, but you can if you like :p
    What I mean though, is how accurate are you ?
    Did you develop your own software or is it just formulas in Excel ?
  9. vedanta


    What got me interested in this is this post by Cheese, any comments ?

    For index futures - intraday trading:

    Current market: YM

    Just carrying out the entries and exits each day according to the prediction model.

    A template is available for each days market according to certain basic parameters.

    The day is predicted and during the market price is tracked within the template.

    One process: amassing money and accumulating without withdrawals.

    The Holy Grail is not chart based. You have finally to analyze and systemize the correct data. Your accuracy is achieved through the near term: one day and less.

    Execution: scooping out the difference H-L daily range but also utilizing gains from other legs in the days gyrations.

    Position sizing is key. Entries to exits capture a high average points gain per $ or per contract. But progressing your weight of trading is key to multiplying your gains over time. Never ever be afraid of starting at the lowest level of one contract once you start trading the market where you have very carefully mastered an understanding and knowledge of it.

    There are no edges.

    This sort of model becomes market affecting but you stop your position size increase before that threshold.

    What does this statement mean ?

    The Holy Grail is not chart based. You have finally to analyze and systemize the correct data. Your accuracy is achieved through the near term: one day and less.

  10. It's, buy low, sell high.

    And there is no holy grail, because something will not work forever.

    The ability to adapt, and change to extract money from the market is the only thing that matters.
    #10     Mar 2, 2006