That is why I use a stop and normal risk vs reward. On a single trade, its impossible to lose my pants as you put it. Maybe you are projecting. This could be what happens in your trading. For this week, I have made real money every day. If you want to put your money where your mouth is we send Baron $ 1,000 real money each. Once he has the money, I will allow him to get a broker's report for my trading for the last 2 weeks of real money trades. If I was losing money, he gives you $ 2,000, if I was making money, he gives me the $ 2,000.00 If I took any trades where my risk was double or more my reward, you also get $ 2,000.00
Yeah. I don't know ahead of time which ones are going to be useful or not, but once they seem like they aren't working I stop extending them. Price has bounced off that one 4 times!
Just my opinion, based on thousands of hours of chart time. And hundreds and hundreds of hours of investigating TL's. Forget the TL's. Again, just imo, but they tend to work better 1) when you know how to draw them to begin with (you don't) 2) I found constant tick or volume charts also work better for TL's. Exception being RTH time charts. Instead, focus on the most recent "horizontal" S/R levels.
If you want to tell me how to draw them correctly that would be cool. I also have a 500 volume chart but I thought the trendlines were working better on the 60 minute chart.
If price is random, do you expect to overcome your transaction costs? Do you pay or earn the spread? If pay, and price is random, how can you profit? If earn, how do you deal with adverse selection? Surely the adverse selection component of your spread will necessarily have to be wider than an institutional competitor with lower costs who does more transactions. So how can you afford to make your spread competitive (how do you get filled)? I could make markets in ES 3 ticks wide all day, but I'd likely not get anything done. As this thread is about predicting gold and silver using support and resistance, can you please explain the price action in gold futures this evening? I'm talking specifically about the 1470 price level. What did the trading there represent in terms of support, resistance, and trendlines? Finally, I'd be grateful if you could predict where gold is likely to go next, using trendlines and S&R, so we can see how beneficial these techniques are in real time. Looking forward to learning more.
I forgot to add. There are a lot of "haters" here who will derail useful threads asking for the impossible and sharing nothing of value in return. I am not one of them, and would not ask someone to do what I would not be willing to do myself. I've given my own short term gold prediction on another thread. I gave the direction I was looking for, and the target price in advance. This should be straightforward for any trader to post, and the audience can see their accuracy by how many they get right and wrong. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3794385&highlight=1500#post3794385 Here is a copy of the gold chart and a copy of my long trades. I'm out of half at 1477 even. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on who was selling to me at 1470 and why, and how this ties in with the S&R/trendline analysis. Thanks in advance.
I use limit orders and wait for the price to come to me. My targets are far away so transaction costs are negligible. I use Scottrade so I pay about $7.00 per side. Great questions. I have written extensively about how I trade in the journal forum here as well as a recent thread on TradersLaboratory.com. I use the same username there so you should be able to find it easily. I believe the subtle attempt at humor was missed in this thread. I cannot predict price so it is funny that I would make a price prediction thread. I draw trendlines and S/R lines and I like to see if price bounces off of them or not. I don't know! I post all my trades in real time in my journal threads and have done so for years. They have nothing to do with prediction, though. I don't even have a position in gold right now, although I do have a position in USLV which I posted live in my journal thread when I bought it. Me too! I'm hoping someone can share some advice in this thread about how to predict with trendlines.