Predicting gold and silver prices with trendlines and S/R!

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by 1a2b3cppp, Apr 28, 2013.

  1. As you know from my journal with live calls, I trade as if price is random.

    As you know from following that journal, I bought some USLV the other day and am thinking about buying some gold, too.

    Just for fun, let's try to predict the movement of silver and gold with trendlines and S/R.

    Here's a chart of gold since price dropped the other day:

    Some of the lines seem to be working, and I've removed most of the ones that didn't to make the chart look better.


    And here is silver:


    I drew a lot of lines because I had no way of knowing which ones would end up being useful or not.
  2. 1) That's the "rub". It randomly "works" some of the time. :(
    2) If you draw enough trendlines and support/resistance zones, something is likely to randomly "work". :eek:
  3. Redneck


    S&R and/or lines both horizontal and diagonal = are context (and not the only context btw)

    Context shows where, and how – participants acted

    Context shows where “potentially” participants could act again – in either the present – or future

    Context has no predictive value – iow; How…, or even if – participants will act – in either the present or future

    Context is not a set up

    Price could always respect…, deny/ ignore…, appear to deny/ignore then respect.., appear to respect then deny… become indecisive…, or show no interest in getting close to – our context


    We never (well at least I don’t);

    Solely trade context…, or assume price will do something just because of context


    I thought better of you than that old – put enough lines on a chart and something gotta work stchick

  4. Sir, I hereby grant to you the distinction of ..... Lord God Context Meister. :cool:
  5. It's almost as if you're saying they're not reliable.

    I wonder if the price predictors know this?

    But seriously, that previous support is now acting as resistance for gold:


    And silver:

  6. This is what my chart would look like if I were trying to sell a course:

  7. Silver is making lower highs and lower lows on a 500 volume chart:


    Is this a downtrend? Should these pullbacks be shorted?

    But wait until the next post for another way to look at it.
  8. Look at this. This price has been S and R many times, and even though silver is making lower lows, the last one was right on the line so maybe it's going to make a higher high now rather than continuing its downtrend:

  9. There are many places where the market crossed the "line" but you didn't draw arrows.....random application, random effectiveness. :( :)
  10. I don't know if that counts. I've seen price action charts where price goes through a line and then bounces off of it again. Is that line still valid? If resistance flips to support price has to cross it at one point.
    #10     Apr 29, 2013