off course who do you think opens all these stupid threads, you're about to break increasenow's record !
====================== Well perhaps partly true; but in a recent [2011]turtle trader interview in Futures mag[futures,stock options... ], William Eckhardt noted his prediction rate was about 35%.[paraphrase, not an exact quote or prediction.LOL ]He admitted he wasnt a good predictor. As far as SPY goes, well some say sell in may/make hay , while the sun shines; but long term trend is still up.I do some times look on shorter term trends, since a 3 year chart can make a difference; its up such a small % in 3 years, with increasing sell volume. Not a prediction; but QQQ bears or bulls , Citibank beartrend$ , SLV bulls probably will out perform it. Not a prediction, simly probabilities
Not sure where you got "8 years" from. I have no issues with my trading. I even made live calls in my journal thread where I was (and still am) overall profitable. But now that I trade longer term rather than day trade, I don't make too many posts in it anymore. I just make a lot of options threads cuz I've never traded them before and I usually do a lot of research before I get into anything. And sometimes it's hard to find answers online when most of the Google results are people trying to sell you trading systems. I just like to tool people who claim to be able to predict market direction yet who are excessively vague about their predictions or rules for entry (read: market "gurus" and system vendors; even the ones on ET who used to PM me to try and peddle their BS systems until they realized I wasn't going to buy anything). Believe me, if there was anyone who could actually predict market direction I would pay 6 figures a year for their guidance. Do you know how easy that would make everything? No scaling in, no hesitation, just BOOM go all in from the beginning for optimal profits.
I can do it. But I can only predict a few days ahead at most and there are some days where I can't predict...and when that happens, I can tell you that I can't predict it. You do have to realize that sometimes there are situations where two paths emerge. It will either go to "A", or it will go to "B". So you have to wait until it starts, but you will know where it will end up. Call me a tool for that, but it is the nature of T.A. My problem with this thread is it was looking too far ahead. SM
Dude if I could predict a few days ahead, even if I could only do it a few times per year, I'd be retired by now. Load up the boat with ES contracts in the correct direction. Close position a few days later. Repeat at next opportunity.