If Barclays decided to buy and integrate LEH into their own products, then vote for the day you think it will happen, regardless of Fed intervention or not. If Barclays only takes a stake, and the stock continues to trade, then obviously no bankruptcy or Fed bailout.
My brother works for another big Wallstreet firm (which will remain nameless) in the credit risk department. In a conversation I had with him yesterday he said they wouldn't make it through to the end of October. Take that as you may.
I agree that LEH won't be around in its current form by the end of October, however from a trading point of view, there is the risk that someone buys some or all of the company at these prices. That includes a Paulson phone call to GS.
I think LEH will be the latest victim on Bailout Sunday. How the hell could it be down 45% premarket if that's not the case.