Precious Metals commentary on July 16, 2012

Hi all, this is the metals market on July 16, 2012. What do you think about the market on this week?

Gold: 16July

Support 1564-5: Double bottom 11July; 10July

1549.5: –2STD below the 21-day moving average.

1532: 30May low.

1529.3: 16May low.

1523.9: Larger picture, horizontal trend line that extends back to the 26Sep lows.

1500: Psychological support

1478.3 to 1462.5: Cluster of lows between 02May & 27June.

1456.8: 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2008- Sep 2011 rally

Resistance: 1589: 21-day moving average.

1600: Psychological level.

1612: Falling trend line in place since the $90 drop on 29Feb.

1629: +2STD above 21-day moving average

1664.7: 200-day moving average

Comment: Unstable is the best word we can use to describe Gold's current technical picture. Our Momentum indicator, about to go positive, has flipped back and forth three times since 21June... larger picture, eight times since the end of March with a week of “almost” in late April.

Currently, our +-2STD Bollinger Bands are contracting. Watch out for the Volatility spring to uncoil and break out of the two and a half month consolidation. Our noted falling trend line resistance is the upper boundary. The lower boundary seems to be 1525 if one goes back to last Sep. Shorter term, a rising trend line from the 30May low comes in at 1553.

Even larger picture, we remind readers of the giant descending triangle which extends back to the Sep 2011 high (1923.7). The upper boundary currently comes in around 1704. The bounce off our noted support level at the 26Dec low (1523.9) forms our horizontal trend line noted above and the lower boundary of the triangle.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are in sync for the next month: rising until 20July, then falling until 31July.

Copper: 16July

Support (continuous): 3.4125: 21-day moving average

3.4240: Rising trend line from 22June low (3.2565)

3.2740: –2STD below the 21-day moving average has acted as a brake. Also rising trend line from the June 2010 low (2.7200) through the Oct 2011 lows (299.40)

3.2380: 04June low

3.2325: 15Dec 2011 low

3.2040: 25Nov 2011 low

3.0915: 20Oct 2011 low

3.0500: Target for a break below recent symmetrical triangle formation

2.9940: 03Oct 2011 low

Resistance (continuous): 3.4775: 18June high

3.5280: The 38.2% retracement of the April to May decline and also clusters around the upper end of a brief consolidation range in late May.

3.5790: +2STD above 21-day moving average

3.5790: 200-day moving average

Comment: Copper remains inside its symmetrical triangle formation as the Continuous contract is still finding support at its rising 21-day moving average. The best description we can think of for our technical indicators is “unstable”, underlining the wide consolidation the market has been in since May. Additionally, our RSI is “middling”, bouncing between the mid 40's and low 60's..

A break out below on stronger Volume targets the previous lows (and the –2STD below the 21-day moving average), then ultimately 3.0500.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns rally until the beginning of August.

 

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Pro Trade;
I mostly agree with your gold,GLD comments[Not that i study or even use all your tek indicators,at present time.LOL]

Gold ,GLD could easily downtrend again [ on 1 year charts;
& it has for much of 2012]. Same trend comments on Year to date charts.

But most all of the longer trend GLD, gold trends are UP/uptrending;
GLD, gold uptrends are the best risk/ reward by far.

But frankly with the big banks downtrending so well[C, BAC, MS..I like those downtrends much better, tek wise & fundamental wise & fund wise.