Prechter's case for a bear market...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by chasinfla, Jun 10, 2002.

  1. The roaring 00s? Don't you mean the roaring 90s?
    #21     Jun 12, 2002

  2. Contrarianism purely for its own sake can be deceptive imho.
    Kind of like a teenager who gets a nose ring because they claim to be a non-conformist, in reality they are being a reverse conformist, marching with the anti-crowd with slavish anti-devotion.

    If gurus and commentators were dead wrong they could be consistently faded, the problem is that their views generally have zero correlation w/reality so sometimes they are right, sometimes wrong- creating the statistical value of a coin flip for their yammering. Plus I hear that some big name analysts/commentators have been calling for a bottom lately which washes out the motley twins.

    Also have to wonder how many folks out there are thinking hmm, 'everyone else' is bearish, so i am being crafty by buying more Cisco and Intel here. Many wiseguy weak hands yet to be washed out methinks.
    #22     Jun 12, 2002
  3. 3dog


    Say it ain't so!!! :eek:
    #23     Jun 12, 2002
  4. spectre


    well said.
    #24     Jun 12, 2002
  5. yeah...i guess so. it was actually 2000 though, the tail end of the roaring '90's.
    #25     Jun 12, 2002
  6. I've never heard abbey or anybody from any investment bank say to sell anything. surely they would be fired. Much more profitable to lie to the public.
    #26     Jun 12, 2002
  7. on the road to capitulation....
    #27     Jun 12, 2002
  8. trdrmac


    Well, I helped the capitulation process after the close today. Changed routing methods from ARCA to SMART and accidently hit an after hours bid instead of just posting at the ask. When I heard the trade go off, my heart dropped.

    So the moral of the story is that was the final sale at those levels, time to rally.:) Also I was on the Munder Site and noticed they were pimping their Reit Fund. Time to start unloading the reits I suppose.
    #28     Jun 12, 2002
  9. Babak


    lol...Munder is a fantastic entity to fade (remember their alternative energy fund ads?) But with interest rates stable for the foreseeable future I don't think you want to unload REITs just yet.
    #29     Jun 12, 2002
  10. trdrmac


    Unload was a harsh word, last year they came out with a Healthcare Fund. I started selling when I saw that, and have not been disappointed.

    riets have been good, I had a friend put his house on the market and sold it in less than a week for full asking price. Similar things have happened to others I know. Personally, I have a nice lakefront apartment, and when my lease came up they offered me a $100 a month discount off my rent to renew. Didn't even have to ask.

    Things could run for a while, but no way am I going to make the same mistakes I made believing in tech, or bears lasting for 9 months for that matter.
    #30     Jun 12, 2002