Prechter wrong again--this IS a top, and a major one

just21 · Apr 11, 2010

Quote from Landis82:

This might come as a surprise to you, but Prechter has been flat-out WRONG since August 5th of last year . . . that's 8 straight months. That's a FACT.

Anyone that has followed his advice/recommendations since August 5th, 2009 has watched their trading capital get shredded. Remember, he recommended going 200% short, not once, but TWICE and did so without posting any stop-loss levels whatsoever.

You sound like you are fairly new to the markets, and the likes of Robert Prechter. I remember him calling for a new Bull Market back in 1982 when he was a guest on Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week". I also remember his infamous "Lost Decade" between 1993 to 2003 in which he was terribly WRONG.

There have been times that he's been right, and there have also been times that he's been terribly WRONG, and done so for years, not just weeks or months.

Given your posts in this thread, it sounds as though you have no background whatsoever in Elliott Wave Theory.

In fact, not once, have you even eluded to Prechter's current wave count, let alone presented an example of it and how it is that he's been WRONG for the past 8 months, let alone why he "could" be right about the future.

You obviously haven't done any homework, or substantive analysis into Elliott Wave Theory as interpreted by Prechter, Glenn Neely, or any other Elliottician.

Thanks for once again providing yet another valuable post to the Trading Forum here on ET.
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Prechter was right in January this year, but broken clocks are right twice a day.

Landis82 · Apr 11, 2010

Quote from deadbroke:

There is NONE of this in the 2006 to current move as can be seen that the Dow clearly exceeded the 2000 top by a wide margin and that the move up from 2002 to 2007 was not a 3-wave move, rather a 5-waver.
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Feel free to tell that to Glenn Neely.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16...e-patterns-and-correlating-trading-strategies

FattBurger · Apr 11, 2010

Quote from retaildaytrader:

No its not. The best thing you can do is play "Pick the Top" and here is my logic in a few examples.

Lets say its January 2000. You are very bearish and feel like technology is way overheated. So what do you do? What you should do is sit there on your seat doing nothing day after day until you can see the obvious downtrend. Then...you start shorting.

In the year 2000 example that would have been considerable waiting. In fact, there were a great many people who were bearish in 1998/1999, but the waiting would have been well worth it on the short side once the trend finally broke...

You should not trade against your emotions and when the market goes against your emotions then you should not trade. When the market finally confirms your emotions then you should trade. If you trade against your emotions, then that is a path to self destruction.

It was Jesse Livermore that said the most money he made was by sitting. If he had simply sat out many times during the market then he would have not lost any money...and would have had plenty of money to trade when the market confirmed his analysis.

It was Jim Rogers that said the best money can be made by just placing your cash in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity.

In 2006, I was very bearish, but the market simply was not confirming what I knew to be true. If I had just sat out and waited until the trend turned then I could have made a bunch by shorting the market. I have lost money in the past and each time I lost it was as a result of a lack of discipline and not waiting for what I knew to be true.

Sometimes sitting and waiting takes weeks and months waiting. What gets most people is that they simply cannot sit and wait...they must trade...they must do something from day to day. The market does not favor the individual that puts their time in and works hard, but it favors the opportunist that trades only on occasion.

You can ignore the primary trend just so long as you are sitting it out waiting for your turn to come. Your thesis of ignoring the primary trend only works until it doesnt. Lets say mid-1998. It took ten months for price to trade to right where it is now....and then a month for it trade right back where it was (down) 10 months prior.

Prechter is not wrong. You are only wrong if you lose money. Prechter does not trade therefore he does not lose any money...he is not wrong. The only person who is wrong is the person who is losing money.
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Emotions can cloud judgement and prevent a trader from being creative because the mind can not allow normal thought to occur. Emotions over-ride logical thought.

Trend reversals usually occur slowly, in stages as the underlying psychlogy shiftes gears.

Why tie up you capital. Wait for the reversal.

noddyboy · Apr 11, 2010

Quote from just21:

Prechter was right in January this year, but broken clocks are right twice a day.
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technically, it depends on how it is broken. If it loses a minute each day but keeps moving, even less than twice a day.

ChampM · Apr 11, 2010

I'm not a good wave counter. Prechter and Neely both seem to find a lot of wiggle room -- Neely is calling for more sideways than down. Interesting post at http://www.rangetraders.com/blog.

I'm a cautious bull.

panamaorange · Apr 11, 2010

Ive called every major swing market turn since august. Every time Ive been told "the TREND is clearly ______"

If buying in the direction of the trend was the only way to trade, who has been selling on every approach to dow 11k, over the last few weeks? Why, with JPM and GS buying in the SPX pit, all week, couldn't we print 11001 one time???

Exactly 2 weeks ago, i flipped from bullish to strongly bearish

This was based on action in Bonds,Vix, Yen, and Dollar.

Also, new certainty that Russian/China iran sanctions would pass (preventing a sudden Israeli strike on Iran). 20.00 dollars of every barrel of oil is from speculators betting on that airstrike!. This airstrike has pushed back to 2011 at the soonest.

We didnât need Greece to implode, for a crash.

As of tonight, bonds and yen futures should be gapping down. Theyâre not. Gold futures are only up 2 dollars over their high. Dollar index is refusing to break 80.00âafter many attempts.

Iâm seeing many claims ofâ
âThe short side is too crowded !!!!â

http://tiny.cc/m79he

Its not

panamaorange · Apr 11, 2010

I post my Calls on twitter, and stocktwits. I lurk on elite trader, and ticker forums. I always avoided posting on these 2 as much as possible.,for fear of being drawn into some kind of ego based flame war.
And here i am defending my ego. Ironic.

http://twitter.com/panamaorange

dandxg · Apr 11, 2010

Quote from ChampM:

I'm not a good wave counter. Prechter and Neely both seem to find a lot of wiggle room -- Neely is calling for more sideways than down. Interesting post at http://www.rangetraders.com/blog.

I'm a cautious bull.
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Its like any predictions forecasting, a lot of hedged calls.

Landis82 · Apr 12, 2010

Quote from panamaorange:

Ive called every major swing market turn since august. Every time Ive been told "the TREND is clearly ______"

If buying in the direction of the trend was the only way to trade, who has been selling on every approach to dow 11k, over the last few weeks? Why, with JPM and GS buying in the SPX pit, all week, couldn't we print 11001 one time???
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Please tell us all how it is that you KNOW with certainty that JPM and GS have been buying in the S&P pit. You act as if they are not working orders on behalf of customers, let alone are facilitating a large program order for them that necessitates hedging via S&P futures.

Get real.

Benign · Apr 12, 2010

Listen to what market says not what Prechter or anyone else say.