http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={6D816465-774E-4EB3-A443-68FAB289E001}&siteid=myyahoo Just in case you missed it!
I got a chance to meet him and he is very cocky to say the least. I have followed wave theory for 5 years (ala market wizards) only because the socioeconomics that wave theory is based does make sense to me. But all my questions to hochberg were answered with one liners and "only my way is the right way " to the analysis.
I read a comparison/contrast of Gann and Elliot. Whereas the Gann trader uses time and price to identify support and resistance, for example, at 5000, observes price movement at such a juncture and trades accordingly, The Elliot Wave trader goes short at 4998.65 and goes broke at 5250. They are always adjusting their wave count after the fact. Prechter said the SP would not pass 890 this past fall. TA of Stocks and Commodities had an interview of some guy who told of going short some high flying internet stock in 1999-2000. He was 75 points in the red but convinced of his wave count so he held the short (which eventually turned his way,like all internet stocks). Some accuracy! Like any guru in the markets clamoring for attention, if you make a drastic pronouncement and you turn out correct, you get rich, as followers will buy your worthless newsletter, but if you are wrong, big deal. Guru-ing is a low risk endeavor,unless you are trading your own ideas, in which case you have an historical probability of 99.98% of going broke.
That's why I have been reading like crazy about Gann. I got whipsawed in Oct. after Hochberg was so on for about 2 months straight that he wrote a special report the day before the start of this rally we're in now to say that the fifth wave had not ended, I closed out my shorts but shorted all those monster days and losing money. Then 2 days later said the cyclical 40,20,10 week cycle turned up the market and the fifth wave had ended. I know it's my fault and Gann has helped alot.
Considering that the world is burried in debt and there is not sufficient assets to cover the interest; which is why the debt keeps growing, they barrow more to pay the current interest, I'm amazed they kept it going this long. The solution is a great war, which the USA has been working to create, or a depression. Just how and when, well that's to be seen. My personal belief is 9/11 was more of an politico-economic act than a terrorist one. The illegal Fed keeps creating new mirrors to "look" solvent. But I beleive in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars the dow is lower than it was in the 60's (so are my boobs). Have you noticed the changes in US dollars. They went from backed by gold, to backed by silver, to back by the "good faith" of the federal gov't, to now, where they are not "backed" by anything. Just look at one!
Your spot on for the wondering why it really hasn't happened yet but the big plan for the global economy was to float all currencies from around the world with nothing backing them up, that way there would never be a depressed global economy like the world experienced back in the 30's that really lead to WW2. Now if the speculation is true and China does go back on the gold standard watch your back side as this could open a big can of worms.
He was still selling his last book in 1996 which predicted "the end of western civilization" to be 1995! Then he came out with another book recently and managed to get on the Art Bell show and he got so many orders for the book that he made it to the best sellers list at Amazon!! I got on at Amazon and did a review telling people to save their money, never checked if it got published or not, there were already a lot of reviews trashing the guy. These wave people all ajust their wave counts after the fact. I guess their methods are such that you can't really code it up and backtest it so they can keep on saying it works. Max