Another problem with Prechter is that IMHO he has done more to discredit Elliot Wave than almost all other forces combined. But that is also all good because you don't want too many people discovering the good applications or they lose their edge.
I'm not sure what the practical application of Prechter's predictions would be for traders or investors. What would either buy now? Put Leaps dated out to 05, if such a thing exists? Some Prudent Bear fund? In shorter time frames right up to scalping, I can't see much use for him. Seems like you'd blow up your account shorting just trying to survive market noise long before the big collapse would come to pass. Put another way, if you ran a trading desk, where would he fit in right now to make you money? Geo.
Anyone who claims to know what is going to happen outside of the next six minutes in the market is basing their decisions using a different "modus operandi" other than science... To trade based on what some guy writes some place is silly, unless there are FUNDAMENTAL reasons for the specific case [e.g., Herb Greenberg on RM on EDS, etc.] To invest this way makes a little more sense, but still silly. nitro
That depends on you. You _can_ use science inside of six minutes... As a reference, take a look at: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/A...8680219/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/002-4592670-7037639 nitro
That kind of science is like the science of predicting which way an ant is going to go in the next 6 minutes.
I always go back to the idea that any instrument can only go three ways and your probability of predicting the direction is about 50/50. About the same as a monkey and a two colored dart board. With all the helps and lots of genius you might get to 60/40 but the odds for this are really poor. So the ant analogy is a good one.
nitro, that is one cool book. one of my faves. 777, excellent analogy. i can predict what direction an ant will go--- it will be in the direction of food. same thing with the market--the market will go in the direction it is pushed/pulled by greed/fear/supply/demand. these forces can be quantified and expoited given sufficiently advanced methods. best, surf
I'm not looking to trade the Kwave or what ever. I'm thinking more of surviving it. I'm not so concerned with Prechter's credibility either. Eventually all these gurus are somewhat right at sometime. I'm more concerned with the possibility that the economy as we know it, could be snuffed out, go the way of Argentina a la the grapes of wrath or for that matter some internut fund. Are we fundamentally as at risk as we've ever been? Like the thirties, or 1840s or tulipville. Has man or academia improved in keeping large scale economic disasters at bay? Or are they just like natural ones. You'd think it might be a priority.
One word. Not Plastics. Flake. Doesn't mean a flake can't be right, but so could my cat type out Shakespeare if given enough time at the keyboard.