I remind that I has already posted an interesting link on Bouchaud - also to remind that Bouchaud is not a nut since it seems that some people considers that speaking of Fibo => being nuts haha ! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=353728&highlight=bouchaud#post353728 As promised this is the interesting audio conference from Jean Philippe Bouchaud - a brilliant guy since he was the winner of young researchers from IBM in 1990 and he is specialised in market's research since 1992. http://online.itp.ucsb.edu/online/bblunch/bouchaud/ (download the file here as others don't seem to work: http://online.itp.ucsb.edu/download/bblunch/bouchaud.rm)
I was at a Chaitin lecture about a year ago. The man is obviously brilliant and a good speaker. His main topic was information theory and distinguishing randomness. His test for randomness was whether or not the information could be compressed into a smaller informational space. For example you could have data from the flight of a thrown ball at each second of flight. This would be a great deal of data. However it could be compressed by describing it as "Flight According To Newtonian Physics". Hence it is nonrandom as you can compress and uncompress the information into different information scales if you will and retain all information. Random numbers in a set have no relation to one another and hence can not be compressed. Interesting stuff. If interested I would suggest checking out the website here as my description may not be the most accurate. I wouldn't look for much from Chaitin in the way of stock market research though. I waited around after the lecture to speak to him describing what I do as a trader and quant and asked him what he thought of the market. He said "Oh I don't know. I think there's a lot of randomness there." : ) Sornette is also a genius.
<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=419514> Since they can't see no reason of existence of fibo maybe they think it is caused by the "Folklore" of Elliott believers in stock market. But are there so many "folklorists" that do practice Elliott so as to surpass the others non folklorists ? I don't think so, then the reason should be elsewhere and more profound than just the "folklorists". And since I have a model that DON'T PRESUPPOSE FIBO OR WAVES but as ARTEFACT or OUTPUT I can observe that the fib ratios are present I can say that Fibo is NOT the CAUSE but the EFFECT of my model's equations or something even more sophisticated - because I don't pretend to have discover the ultimate one.
Do they mean http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/archive35.htm <IMG SRC=http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/2002/thevolatiledowelliottwave.gif>
I have other academic reference also about Fibo in stock market when I will remember their titles in my numerous archives .
This weekend I have seen a funny thing at the TV. The reporter have discussed with the famous Damasio neuroscientist and physician about Elliot surgery that he have done many years ago. Since this time, Elliot have never been able to do a good trade, (he's not alone if we spot since 2000!). The thesis of this scientist is that the tumor have damage his emotional center which is supposed to required in any objective decision ... In summary, following his thesis, no good decision without emotion, ...