Power Bidding Strategies

What's your view on cash trading in the long term? West Hub has been clearing dirt cheap these days with Tetco at less than $1. Not to mention once they finish building that Bagley parallel won't see much BGE congestion.

 

Yes + yes, if i understand your question.Even if i dont exactly 100% understand your question; good read= Jack Schwager Top Trading books. I did another study on his books, wore some to the point of needing tape.[scotch tape, NOT bid ask tape] Wisdom is profitable to direct.

Put another way; Joshua Lukemans Market Makers Edge includes 6 month candlecharts

 

You're out of your element.

 

"what mile are you on?"

But seriously.... No one here can really answer that question with any certainty.

When they put Bagley in service it might eliminate one bullish constraint and create another. There's always going to be congestion right?

The problem is it's ultimately a mathematical function, and the function's largest single input is the natural gas price. Right now betting on cash PJM to pick up long term is fighting every signal the market is sending you: term HH, term TETCO/Transco basis markets, increased iso dispatch coordination, etc, etc, etc.

Lastly you have a disproportionately large % of the natural hedgers in the market locked into West Hub with little incentive to leave. There are still super-volatile hubs available to trade on ICE (see Minn Hub, or SPP South to a lesser extent, they don't trade but they are volatile almost everyday) but no natural hedging goes on at them at this point. So unless you migrate everyone that wants to trade the volatility somewhere else (you can't) you have to hang around for an anomalous event and make a lot of hay while the sunshines (Polar Vortex, late July 2011) or hope for a fundamental shift that gets natty back above $6.... then you'd be back in biz.

 

thanks for your input. how long have you been trading for? how has this past year or two stacked up against past 5-10 years in terms of volatility and opportunity.

 

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You maybe a good guesser.Mr deltaStrike; but you are also right on - i dont buy options, so i dont care about decay overnight.LOL As far as your '' prediction'' on NOV 19 , 2015.LOL; i dont do predictions. As far as you asking for strangers P&L; you may do better selling puts-not a prediction??

 

Did you comment in the wrong thread or something?

 

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No; do you know how to cut a loss?? If not, you maybe will learn that-but that is not a prediction, also.Thanks for the question.....