I'm hoping ( but not really expecting ) we can generate some euphoria soon. Try to capture 50-80% of the move then get out. Haven't seen a sniff of it yet though except in Canadian pot stocks which I don't choose to play in.
I remember those days. Breathless statements about the newest stock on the news. It was disgusting. Today, I feel that same disgust on "trade war news" spikes. Not sure when those will end. This is probably the only thing I see in the market today that makes me bearish.
Right now I am at "You are here" Should be clear: QQQ is short for some tech stocks. I'm not exactly sure when I started buying actual QQQ.
Yeah you get a sniff of it. Weak Investment Banks and Hedge Funds will fail and the word gets out. Bear Stearns’ problems with CDO’s became public knowledge in June of 2007 when they backstopped their failing hedge funds with $3B. Even then there was plenty of talk and front page financial press about systemic mortgage derivatives risk. By March of 2008, JP Morgan/Chase had bought what was left of BS and in turn those assets were backstopped by the Fed. The broad equity markets sold off steadily April to July of 2008, then absolutely fell off the face of planet Earth from August until the end of the year. Lehman Brothers didn’t declare bankruptcy until September 15, 2008 and there were weeks of articles and rumors about them beforehand.
Based on everything I have read, the financial companies that failed, failed because it was advantageous to other incumbents. I don't think it "had" to happen in the sense of the Fed backstop. Using my "personal disgust" indicator and a 200 week moving average on S&P, the only other time my disgust indicator signaled and the 200 week moving average were so far out of whack was 2007. About 19% now, about 18% in 2007. In 2000, they were out of whack by 34%. This sort of makes sense because S&P was being pumped by NDX which itself was out of whack by 150% during dot bomb. Retroactively applying my disgust indicator to Nasdaq-100 in 2007 the difference between the index value and the 200 week moving average is almost exactly the same. 29.06% then, 29.98% now. I just randomly chose the 200 week moving average because markets move slowly. That, and the other indicator I use (which I have mentioned elsewhere - see my SPY $260 thread - it went to $274) has been diverging from the market HUGE. I've been ignoring it but never seen it diverge this much for this long (usually diverging means reversal). I did go all in. And I did go short at that time. Very interesting. Could be making me bearish.
2000 2007 Today I'm not making a call this time, but you've seen me make calls twice before (SPY going to $260 and getting out before Oct 2018), but I feel as if it may actually be coming......................................................................................................................................................................................... Literally everything that I have used in the past is pointing to it, but I have been ignoring it because I'm trading on a shorter timescale these days. Mother of god. SPY going to 260 -> went all in as it went below 280 every time. Not shorting now, but maybe not buying now either. Fuck. Do not like. Also NFLX and TSLA. My AMD short didn't go anywhere so it was closed at a small profit, but INTC long went well. I think that's it for the live calls on here. Unfortunately, did not take advantage of NFLX because I was being stupid.
Also my disgust indicator was probably inactive in 2014-2015 because I was working at a large hedge fund which TO BE QUITE PERFECTLY HONEST WAS A SIGNAL TO ME THAT THINGS WERE WAY TOO HOT. Who the fuck would hire me to work at a hedge fund. Exactly. The signals are all there....................................................