Pound forecast to tumble on 'insane' spending cuts

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ASusilovic, Oct 24, 2010.

  1. Britain's spending cuts have been branded as "absolutely insane" by one of the world's leading currency traders, who expects the pound to tumble beyond the low it has set this year.

    "I think what Britain is doing is absolutely insane" John Taylor, the founder of the $8bn FXConcepts fund, told The Sunday Telegraph. "The Conservatives will lose their stomach for this."

    Reducing Britain's £156bn budget deficit is the cornerstone of the government's plan for restoring the economy's health. George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, told Parliament last week that the £81bn in spending cuts would pull "Britain back from the brink."

    Although Mr Osborne's plan has won support from many economists, there remains concern that it will damage a recovery that is already showing signs of faltering.

    "The last retail sales numbers were pretty ugly and then we have to go through the VAT hit," said Mr Taylor, who at 67 is one of the oldest operators in the foreign-exchange markets. The pound will fall below 1.40, possibly this year, he expects. Sterling reached 1.43, its weakest against the dollar this year in May.


    Rule Britannia!
    Britannia rule the waves.
    Britons never, never, never will be slaves.
    Rule Britannia!
    Britannia rule the waves.
    Britons never, never, never will be slaves.

  2. 1) If the cuts "work", which country will be next to do the same? :confused:
    2) Is "Susilovic" a British name? :confused:
  3. I was on a British web site earlier today and there was an ad in the top right corner with Obama's picture:

    "Obama Wants Mom's Back To School – Here's How To Do It"

  4. 1) The US of A / Japan / Royal Bank of Scotland.
    2) No.

  5. If anyone can explain to me why the Euro is so high I'd appreciate it... my guess is their is some massively greedy Carry going on in Euro denominated Sovereign bonds.....

    Anyone care to offer an opinion?
  6. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    The Euro is high due to interest rates being close to zero in the United States, this also increases the value of gold and oil. If interest rates ever rise, you will see the value of all of these fall, and gold could go down as much as 50% because in reality its just a pretty shiny metal with no real value.

  7. Simply ask your local hedge fund. They will know why the USD is weak...
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    is this comedy? we all know why the usd is weak - benny and the inkjets.

    the pound, the euro, all of it is poised to fall. but not until qe2 fizzles out.
  9. Yes - everyone is selling the dollar on quantitative easing fears, that's why the Euro is up so much. First part of the rally was just all the "EU is breaking up" bets unwinding, the second part was due to QE 2 in the USA.

    IMO the Euro will rise a little bit more in the very short-term until the Fed actually do their QE purchases, and then the Euro will top on a "sell the news" move and go back down to 1.30, and eventually 1.20 and lower. The Eurozone will eventually have debt restructuring in the periphery and the ECB may have to do its own QE program, and this is not even on the radar of any Euro long right now. If and when that happens, parity will beckon.

    FWIW I think the pound will also approach parity with the dollar and euro, in a few years.
  10. benwm


    I must be the only GBP bull around here.
    #10     Oct 25, 2010