Before i start this thread, I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. I am just bored looking for ideas on what could cause a potential near future crash. With high inflation, it seems that it is a matter of time before a crash. When identifying a few potential catalysts I have tried to take into consideration a few different things. I have thought of previous historical causes and signals of crashes. The best historical comparison that I can think of is the great depression. When I have read/seen articles coming out recently such as "Revenge Spending" Clears out Lamborghini for most of 2021 this causes me to make a connection between the Roaring 20's and now. To keep this short I am not going to elaborate more on historical connections, that is just a basic example. These connections lead to more questions such as "people spending more money, doesn't that mean the economy is thriving" and "the economy is still opening up, how can you relate this to the 1920's and 30's". These are valid points but it is a matter of time before the fed raises rates and the idea of higher capital gains taxes could cause a correction or crash. If the fed raises rates to 3%-10% this could cause people to take money out of the market and put it into government bonds. The US10Y rates have not been over 4% since 2008 but it could reach higher rates to raise the value of the US dollar. If the Biden administration raises capital gains taxes, this could cause many large investors to liquidate and take their money elsewhere(out of the US). The idea of large investors taking their money out of the US could cause panic and lead to mass liquidation(similar to 1930's). I'm going to end this thread here but am open to ideas of potential catalysts. Once again this is not financial advice.
Why are traders so obsessed with crashes? your whole post made me think of a guy stranded in the middle of nowhere...surrounded by horses but looking for a unicorn to ride home...only a unicorn will do.
You right traders do not give a shit, but there are a lot more investors than traders, and they do give a shit.
So you are saying investors are more worried about a crash than traders? Seems every time I turn around someone is predicting a crash all the while the market smooth melts upwards.
I’m not so hip on the imminent market crash theory and I learned that the hard way as I held an entire portfolio of puts during and after covid hit spring 2020. I went from being way up to losing something like $70k (which is a lot for me) waiting for the next leg down that never came. honestly good luck in predicting the next crash though buddy I hope you clean up.
It seems crazy not to be worried of a market crash considering how high inflation is. Yes everything is opening back up and the economy seems to be on a upward trend. But when Biden is talking about higher capital gains taxes and g bond rates are oddly low considering how high inflation is, I think there is something to genuinely be worried about. Yes this is just a prediction, but there should be real worry about the previously listed concerns.
Temporarily maybe, but when the fed raises rates (most likely soon) and people don’t want to work because they’ve been handed checks that the US printed how bullish is the market
And when the eviction moratorium is over there will most likely be a larger homeless population. Which could cause a short bearish market