Is your ego really that tied up in the fact that this market is a long that you want to revisit this all in a month? Trading must be so tiring for you.
Just like one needs to stand on a firm ground in order to be sure not to fall, one needs to stand on firm assumptions. If one does not fall, it does not mean the ground is firm. If one falls the ground was not firm. This discussion assumes there is no external reason for the fall such as weak legs, someone pulling/pushing, too much weight, etc.
Tell that to Blotto, I simply told ET traders that a breakdown on the EUR/USD was possible and it did happen, so what on earth is the problem with him?? Oh yeah, he "predicted" an upside spike on the EUR/USD on some other thread, so what, what this has to do with anything? By the way Blotto, only idiots and total amateurs would trade ascending channels the way you described it on your chart. Here is the correct (and low risk) way to profit from ascending channels, even though I was only looking for the breakdown itself (the fact that my system generated a short signal at the top of the ascending channel is just a simple coincidence). You only buy at support, there are no short trades here. In other words you are staying with the up trend. Of course the last long position will be stopped out after the breakdown:
Closing all short EUR/USD positions at 1.3465 (100 pips below my first short position), possible short re-entry later if downtrend is still valid.
GBP/USD, the EUR/USD little cousin, is forming a nice triangle formation on an uptrend (15 min chart). This could lead to a serious upside breakout...
X, The issue I have with channel trading, is that if you get somewhat creative you can spot downtrend and uptrend channels all over, so which one do you choose? The above is especially true if you up the timeframes. Too many conflicts.
Generally, you would need to figure it out on yourself or pay someone to tell you (and verify with you that you understood) things they would not tell you unless they are paid!
Absolutely, chart reading is an art. It takes years of observation to master. But after a while, you almost immediately know if the pattern is valid or if you are just imagining things.
This is the GBP/USD 5 min chart, I bought at 1.6185, ahead of the breakout. This is a "just for fun" trade. I know, real traders do not trade just for fun, shame on me, but the Asian session is so boring sometimes Let's see how far it can go now...or not. (if price re-enters the triangle and stays there game is over!)