Potential breakout on the EUR/USD?

blah12345678 · Nov 20, 2013

Down she goes...

ECB spooks the market, EURUSD drops 80 pts...

bhristov · Nov 20, 2013

I just woke up, looks like the break u talked about happening has occurred. However, at this point in the trade u shouldn't cover u should add size just my two cents. This trade if u look at the setup has to test the lows near 1.33. If u cover now u aren't getting the bang for ur buck.

Trader.Fighter · Nov 20, 2013

The arrogance of that guy clouded the judgement of price...

fxlmnop · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from Blotto:

You're not likely to get any help on that during the Asian session (where is the selling going to come from?), and come the European open it will most likely move against you again. You wrote earlier that a breakout could come either way...well it came upside...so why are you going short? Step back from that, does that make sense if you analyse the market in terms of breakouts? In fact, as a breakout trader, wouldn't it be better to take the small profit while you still have it, reverse long (you've bought the breakout), with a stop somewhere like 1.35, and target 1.36 to take partial profits, and see if the market carries on above that tomorrow? At least then you're trading a breakout strategy (and taking advantage of others who will want and need to be buyers tomorrow).

The condition described in the other thread is still in force, and further panicky type moves, when European traders wake up to see the market against them, and perhaps even into the American session tomorrow, would not be out of place here. Dangerous indeed for shorts.

(I'm not advocating breakouts as a trading strategy, nor am I advocating trading when you clearly do not understand the cycle which is in play - and I hope these trades aren't live - just pointing out that the decision you've posted doesn't seem to be consistent with your prior analysis)

You've guessed at traders playing games, so this suggests a motive. What is the motive then? Why are they playing the game, what does it achieve, and what conditions are in force which allow "them" to play in the first place? And if you don't understand any of this, and need to ask on ET what caused a move, why are you taking a position against it in the first place?

Massive opportunity for aspiring traders to learn something here by asking the right questions and thinking logically.
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Greetings Blotto,

A bit off topic I realize, but just wondering if you happen top know shopster or zen student....zen never did give his stop?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=235578&perpage=6&pagenumber=20

tradingjournals · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from tradingjournals:

I think it is heading down. Which pair is it best to play this: EUR/AUD? EUR/JPY?
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I decided on EUR/AUD, and also added to the analysis GBP/CHF. The first was a short, and the second was a long. They were at 1.4420 and 1.4665. Would EUR/AUD do better while Europe snores?

tradingjournals · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from xelite777:

+50 pips, closing half of my position, stop remains at break-even.
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Did you get influenced by other posts? If you did, that is a downside of threads when you are right.

bhristov · Nov 20, 2013

For all my big talk I closed my short just now since I didn't like the price action at fed minutes, probably got out too soon but will reshort if opportunity arises

xelite777 · Nov 20, 2013

Wow, a truckload of pips just fell into my Forex account!

The expected breakout on the EUR/USD did indeed occur.

Now only that, but my system managed to short the entire freaking down move, not just the breakout itself (see chart below)!

Be right back, I have to go to the supermarket.

PS: Sorry, you were saying Blotto...?

bhristov · Nov 20, 2013

Nice job but I am telling u if overnight this selling forms L shape on 30 min bars you will be leaving the easiest money on the table. I have exited as well but plan on re-entering if I continue to see such a continued lack of buying interest. if this should indeed be the end of the selloff u would expect a V shaped recoveryf. My guess is its just a pause after the US close.

xelite777 · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from bhristov:

Nice job
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Thanks, hope you made some good money too.

Quote from bhristov:

but I am telling u if overnight this selling forms L shape on 30 min bars you will be leaving the easiest money on the table.
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Don't worry about me, I was not born yesterday, my trailing stops are in place and if they smell even the faintest odor of reversal they will go on red alert and protect my money.

Now let's see what the Yen is up to...