Potential breakout on the EUR/USD?

bhristov · Nov 19, 2013

Well this thread went crazy in no time. Blotto is correct that trading against a trend is the surest way to lose money I am pretty sure everyone here has experienced this. I trade with the trend except when there are open weekend gaps that need closing from Friday to Sunday night. One of those exists in Eur/usd from a few weeks back. It almost closed recently but has not yet. I have been stopped out as it ran against me initially several times but I was able to make a good profit from 1.38 to 1.33. Now that it's back up to 1.3550 I see another opportunity for a short if my first premise to close the gap is still valid. At some point I have to implicitly call a top by placing my order and if I get stopped out I may try again as long as the reward is still there to justify the trade and I am comfortable with that possibility.

I have been around many experienced traders and I have yet to meet one that gets married to a prediction like its some sort of law of physics. The vast majority of trades are losses or small gains for almost all profitable traders its the money management that enables long term success not your ability to "predict" anything.

xelite777 · Nov 19, 2013

Quote from Blotto:

I stand by what I said. I know from my study that it is extremely unlikely that we would get a proper downside breakout at this point in the market. So telling traders that we could have a breakout either way isn't helpful. Sure, everyone needs to have a plan to limit their losses, but lets face facts that the majority of losses are going to be caused by trading in the wrong direction, based on attempting to apply such abstract concepts as "trend" without understanding how markets work.

The point is that there was only one high probability directional breakout, and it came opposite to the direction you were calling. Whats more, the information to give this conclusion was available in advance of your even making the short call. So that casts some doubt on your assertion that this so called pattern is bearish.

So your drawing turned out to be incorrect on this occasion. Fair enough. Nothing is 100% in the markets. Lets see what you can learn from this to improve your trading odds in the future. Why don't you draw out and post this condition the next 20 times you see it occur, in real time before the outcome is known? Then we can see whether this is a reliable bearish pattern as you attest.

It is unfortunate that you think my tone is condescending...the motive was to help others by prompting them to understand why they would be wanting to call shorts in a rising market. There is opportunity in identifying when a large proportion of traders have done this, as you can profitably trade against them.

The only reason I have time to be discussing trading and posting on ET...rather than getting on with it...is because I'm suffering from an episode of a recurring illness and therefore cannot trade at the moment. Trying to help some folks out alleviates some loneliness and boredom, and distracts from suffering. But I guess it isn't wanted so I'll fuck off. I'm quite sure that with your many hundreds of posts per month that you know so much more than I do about markets, so my input isn't needed. We can all see how your short turned out tomorrow. Remember to tell us where and when you exit, so we can see how good your "textbook patterns" are.

I'm training up a guy to trade for me when I can't, we discussed Euro earlier today, and after the US close discussed the likely spike during the Asian session. And it might interest you to know that I said "long 1.3490 hold until 1.36" at 06:55 EST today to an ET member who is well known here as a self made multi millionaire and "big baller". I decide who I do live / calls with and it sure as hell ain't gonna be folks who are rude and disrespectful.
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Wow, that's quite a long post, let me grab a cold Heineken (or two) and I will get back to you soon

P.S.: Sorry to hear about your illness, hope you feel better soon.

xelite777 · Nov 19, 2013

Shorting more EUR/USD at 1.3555, my average (short) price on his position now stands at 1.3560

xelite777 · Nov 19, 2013

Quote from bhristov:

Blotto is correct that trading against a trend is the surest way to lose money
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Sure, but which "trend" are we talking about exactly?

The 1 min trend?

The 5 min trend?

The 15 min trend?

The 30 min trend?

The 60 min trend?

The 4 hours?

Daily?

Weekly?

Monthly?

Yearly trend?

See how easy it is to fool people with meaningless chatter, instead of simply saying: "I am buying/selling here and liquidating my position here"

Trader.Fighter · Nov 19, 2013

Quote from xelite777:

Sure, but which "trend" are we talking about exactly?

The 1 min trend?

The 5 min trend?

The 15 min trend?

The 30 min trend?

The 60 min trend?

The 4 hours?

Daily?

Weekly?

Monthly?

Yearly trend?

More...

+1

tradingjournals · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from Blotto:

Risking 50 pips to make 50 pips if the market has 80% of going to target before reaching your stop is the same thing.

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Could you or someone explain this part? The same thing: what is being compared here?

tradingjournals · Nov 20, 2013

I think it is heading down. Which pair is it best to play this: EUR/AUD? EUR/JPY?

xelite777 · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from tradingjournals:

I think it is heading down. Which pair is it best to play this: EUR/AUD? EUR/JPY?
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I do not have a clear trading signal on EUR/AUD or EUR/JPY.

All stops have now been moved to break-even.

xelite777 · Nov 20, 2013

Quote from xelite777:

Shorting EUR/USD at 1.3565
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+50 pips, closing half of my position, stop remains at break-even.

riskaddict · Nov 20, 2013

I'm confused. The original trade idea behind this thread is based on something that could take a week or more to play out and people are jumping on this guy because it doesn't happen instantly. When something is in a channel like this there are a many opportunities in both directions so why not just enjoy it while it lasts.