Potash IPO next week

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by cgtrader, Apr 16, 2008.

  1. Hmm interesting. Thanks for sharing.
  2. sharing is caring
  3. Parabolic
  4. Will end in disaster for those who have a large % of their portfolio in MOS, MON, POT.
  5. people have been saying that about potash stocks since 2006
  6. I am a MAJOR "Pot" Head!! Can not wait to jump in!
  7. You wont see a significant slow down in potash prices for min 6-12 months at least. Look at the price negotiation that Campotex pulled off today with China. China is a notoriously cheap negotiator and if they are paying then everyone else will too when all of the other export contracts are getting negotiated for the rest of the year.

    Actually you wont see potash prices decline until all of the underlying commodities that use it as an input decline. In another words until their is a glut or oversupply of food ( rice, wheat, soya beans, corn, etc). The high prices of the underlying commodities support potash as it is still the best bang for the buck when it comes to fertilizer production.

    I've talked to a friend who is a CA and has worked on audits for 2 of the major producers. He said that huge stockpiles of extra production that used to be valued and parked on the balance sheet over the past couple of years as short term inventory for years are virtually all gone!

    Their are literally huge long strings of rail cars every day that pass through virtually all Campotex potash cars going to Vancouver port, and logistics cant keep up. The Sask producers are literally an oligopoly and don't compete for customers against one another because they can't keep up as it is. They are also the most reliable suppliers in the world so everybody uses them.

    This aint no Nortel.
  8. true king nutz but the market is already pricing in a ton. this IPO is a sign of a top in the stocks. nice call crgarcia! granted, you won't be seeing me trying to catch a freigh train with my face but it is certainly a red flag.

    i can't wait to be trading IPI...i have a feeling it will be better trading than the V IPO.
  9. I really like this company's IPO in general, but I don't like the valuation. At best we can expect 0.60 per share from this company in 2008. This means it will be issued at 40x future earnings. These owners are cashing in at a sick level.

    PCS is trading at around 27-28x expected earnings... it will be fun to see what happens when Intrepid starts trading. I can see a pop off the hop and then who knows but I think it is overpriced to begin with.
    #10     Apr 16, 2008