Bumpies anyone still holding this short from 149-150. I think we will be down to $130 within a week, just a feeling.
The risk/reward involved with this trade doesn't make it "easy". The best you can do short term is 12%, and that's assuming the entire premium on the offer disappears. So maybe 10% is more likely. Could you lose 10% ? That would be POT at $162/share which is not out of the question given that many people are saying POT might go for $170 eventually. If the trade goes against you, would you be willing to take the 10% hit ? Well, the problem is if there is news on this you might not have that option. You might lose 15%.
Those puts are up 25%. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2932514#post2932514 ----------------------------------
the broker gets to make commission on the sale. these mergers and acquisitions don't create value to shareholders or create any jobs..it's a waste of time and only people who benefit is th investment bank and traders who trade on these takeovers and investment banks making no risk commissions brokering these deals. as for management and board of directors of pot,,after merger they are most like get 'restructured' or let go. the shareholders don't want to sell because if they sell there is nothing in the market worth investing. bond yields are pathetic if you are buying now. as for stocks,,,of other companies they are not worth investing either ..so they sell and get the cash.. cash is yielding 0%-1% now. cash is not king for new cash.
The percentages were referring to the stock price moves of course you can make a lot more on the options if you guess the direction right AND ( key point here ) have the discipline to sell. I'm also basing it on Friday's stock market close. So tell us now. 1. Did you buy the options yourself YET. Nice to have a short term idea but pulling the trigger is a different story. 2. If YES, at what price specifically would you sell these options. Remember, you'll likely have to pay the spread if you are making money and/or put out a limit order and hope someone wants it. I am very familiar with POT options I made money on Calls and Puts last year but its a rollercoaster where quoting a 25% gain on the weekend is absolutely meaningless. POT could open up or down $5 a share on Monday before the options can even trade.
Just a hunch, but I wouldn't want to be holdng those Puts early this week. POT is sneaking up on $150 US and if it breaks that level it will run up to close to $160. You can always rebuy them at that point.